Yorkshire Pudding Index

The Yorkshire Pudding Index, which includes wheat, eggs, and milk, increased significantly in November 2025. The index rose by 10.74% Y-O-Y, driven by a sharp rise in egg prices.

Yorkshire Pudding Index:

  • Wheat flour
  • Eggs
  • Milk

year-over-year

Wheat

Euronext milling wheat futures fell by 1.15% over November 2025 and 12.66% Y-O-Y, closing at €189.35/mt (£165.59/mt) on November 26. The ample global wheat supply across key producing regions, including the European Union, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Australia, continues to exert downward pressure on prices. Exchange rate fluctuations, particularly the euro against the US dollar, remain a critical factor impacting Paris wheat futures, reflecting intense competition among major exporters and EU-origin wheat. The International Grains Council’s November update raised its total wheat production forecast by 3 million mt to 830 million mt, up from the previous September estimate, confirming a generally well-supplied global outlook.

Global wheat stock levels at the end of the 2025/26 season remain unchanged, while importers appear to be increasing coverage ahead of the Christmas holiday period. During this period, market focus traditionally shifts toward risks affecting winter crops in the Northern Hemisphere, with many traders anticipating that wheat prices will remain heavily influenced by weather developments as sowing concludes.

Domestic wheat prices in the UK have generally mirrored global market trends. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) projects total UK wheat availability for the 2025/26 season at 16.0 million mt, representing a 6% decline from the previous year. This reduction is primarily due to a decrease in carry-in stocks and imports, which outweighs the increase in production. Additionally, reduced domestic consumption, alongside lower imports and carry-in stocks, contributes to a tighter wheat balance for the 2025/26 season.

According to market players, the decline in milling wheat prices has the potential to lower input costs for flour millers and food manufacturers, possibly resulting in reduced prices for wheat-based products such as bread and pasta. However, the extent to which consumers will benefit depends on whether these cost savings are passed through the supply chain, as factors like energy, transportation, and labor expenses could offset these reductions. While a smaller domestic crop in the UK may constrain local supply later in the season, competitively priced imports may help stabilize prices. In summary, although falling wheat prices are a positive indicator, the ultimate impact on consumers will depend on broader supply chain dynamics.

Milk

The Expana Benchmark Price for UK fresh milk decreased by 60.53% Y-O-Y to £0.18/liter in November 2025. The UK milk market remains bearish, with production levels exceeding expectations for this time of year. Given the elevated milk supply, some cheesemakers who traditionally keep plants running over the Christmas period to benefit from typically lower holiday milk prices have signaled that they will halt operations during the upcoming festive season. The combination of abundant milk supply and subdued demand underscores the ongoing uncertainty surrounding milk valorization amid falling dairy commodity prices. Most contract adjustments have already been implemented, with farmgate prices revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Eggs

EU egg prices rose by 20.65% Y-O-Y and 3.63% M-O-M to €2.9/kg (£2.54/kg) in November 2025. The UK remained the top destination for EU egg exports throughout 2025. Retail demand for shell eggs remains firm across much of the EU, driven by household stocking ahead of year-end celebrations and a seasonal uptick in home cooking as temperatures drop. Supermarkets continue to draw steady volumes, and prices remain well above historical averages, though market participants are increasingly uncertain how long this strength can persist into January. Many buyers are now managing orders week to week, focusing on immediate needs and avoiding high-priced inventory as the seasonal peak begins to fade.

On the supply side, several farms are reportedly searching for additional consumption eggs to meet their retail commitments, highlighting the continued resilience of this segment. At the same time, concerns about supply continuity are growing amid the ongoing spread of bird flu across several EU countries. Regular reports of new outbreaks continue to unsettle the market, prompting some participants to secure inventories sooner rather than later.

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