Christmas Pudding Index

The Christmas Pudding Index, which includes almonds, sultanas, raisins, walnuts, sugar, butter, eggs, and wheat, fell significantly in November 2025. The index fell by 7.32% Y-O-Y, driven by sharp price declines across some ingredients, particularly butter and walnuts.

Christmas Pudding Index:

  • Almonds
  • Sultanas
  • Raisins
  • Walnuts
  • Sugar
  • Butter
  • Eggs
  • Wheat

year-over-year

Almonds

The Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) of imported Californian almonds (Nonpareil Supreme, 23/25 delivered CIF Northwest Europe) increased by 7.85% Y-O-Y in November 2025 to £5.60/kg.

US almond prices have remained elevated throughout much of 2025 compared to recent years, despite underlying supply volatility. The 2024 crop began with carryover supplies at multi-year lows, and domestic production fell short of market expectations, perpetuating a tight supply situation that supported elevated pricing. Steady demand has continued to underpin prices throughout the period. A USDA production estimate issued in July 2025 led to significant price volatility, as it projected much higher production levels than most market players anticipated. Prices declined sharply following the estimate but then recovered as doubt in the forecast emerged. The upward trajectory has so far continued. The general weakness of the US dollar through much of 2025 has helped soften price increases from the US market. The UK pound appreciated approximately 5% against the US dollar and the euro strengthened roughly 11% (against the dollar) between December 2024 and November 2025. Constrained current inventories coupled with heightened uncertainty around future supplies and steady underlying demand have sustained elevated almond pricing. This is despite periodic volatility and favorable currency dynamics for the UK and broader European markets.

Butter

The Expana Benchmark Price for butter unsalted EXW UK decreased by 37.55% Y-O-Y to £4,200/mt in November 2025. UK butter prices have been declining since July 2025 amid sluggish demand, mirroring the situation in the EU and strengthening overall negative sentiment. Responding to this softer tone, producers exercised caution in their churning activities, choosing to sell cream directly rather than produce butter and delaying sales when feasible. Meanwhile, UK dairy processors were reported to be prioritizing preparations for the winter bakery season, focusing on retail-oriented production rather than bulk output.

Sultanas and Raisins

The EBP for Turkish sultanas fell by 17% Y-O-Y in November 2025 to $2,970/mt (£2,197/mt). Despite the annual decrease, prices remain elevated compared to their long-term average.

Turkey exported 38,000 mt of sultanas between the start of the 2025/26 campaign on September 1 and November 22, representing a 25% decrease from the previous 2024/25 season when 50,500 mt were shipped. The decline is even sharper than in 2023/24, when Turkish sellers exported approximately 69,700 mt, a 45% reduction.

This year's export decline follows a couple of years of elevated Turkish sultana prices, which prompted buyers to seek cheaper alternative origins such as Iran or China, or adjust product recipes to reduce sultana content.

On the supply side, the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) projects Turkish sultana production at approximately 220,000 mt, a 3% decline from the previous year and a significant drop from average crop volumes.

In April, a cold snap swept across Türkiye, damaging numerous crops, including nuts and fruits. Between June and August, the Manisa region endured intense heat. While these conditions aided grape drying, they proved suboptimal during the final phase of crop development.

Walnuts

The Expana Benchmark Price for US walnuts imported to the UK (Walnut NC LHP 20% (US) cfr UK EBP) was assessed at £5.24/kg at the end of November, a 24% decrease from the same time last year. US walnut prices have declined Y-O-Y following a substantial supply correction. After prices peaked in early 2025 due to the 2024 crop falling significantly short of expectations, the 2025 California harvest is now forecast at 644,000 mt, representing an 18% increase from 2024's 547,000 mt. Some sources suggested production could climb even higher than the estimate.

The general weakness of the US dollar through much of 2025 has made US imports more price-competitive for international buyers. The UK pound appreciated approximately 5% against the US dollar and the euro strengthened roughly 11% between December 2024 and November 2025. Competition from alternative origins, particularly Chile and China, has added further downward pressure on US seller pricing. The combination of improved US production, favorable currency dynamics, and heightened global competition has collectively driven the Y-O-Y price decline.

Sugar

The price of granulated white sugar (ex-works, UK) increased by 4.5% Y-O-Y in November 2025 to £462/ton. Prices were substantially higher from March through October, before dropping 4.5% from October to November. Meanwhile, global sugar prices have reached their lowest level since 2020.

Expana forecasts that UK sugar production will remain largely unchanged at around 1.1 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with a 7.3% drop in the area planted being largely offset by a 6.8% rise in sugar yield. The average sugar content in the UK this year was reported to be above 18%, significantly higher than in recent years.

Annual imports of raw cane sugar permitted under the UK’s Autonomous Tariff Quota (ATQ) will increase by 25% to 325,000 tons from January 2026. NFU Sugar, a UK industry group, said it “remains wholly opposed to an ATQ for raw cane sugar, regardless of its size or duration.”

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