US consumers may have to pay more for holiday food favorites this December, as Expana’s new 2025 US Christmas Dinner Index shows an overall increase compared to last year.

Expana’s Christmas Dinner Index, which tracks price changes across key components of a festive meal, including a traditional main meal and gingerbread, rose by 10.98% year over year (YOY) in November 2025.

The main meal index, which includes staples such as turkey, pork, beef, shrimp, and lamb; as well as vegetables like potatoes, carrots, and turnips, increased by 12.18% YOY. This rise was largely driven by higher prices for turkey, beef, shrimp, and some vegetables, which outweighed declines in pork and other commodities.

Turkey remains a central story: wholesale whole‑bird prices surged through most of 2025 and, despite stabilizing in November, sit near historically high seasonal levels after HPAI losses exceeded 3.7 million birds. Meanwhile, shrimp—a consumer favorite on Christmas Eve and at holiday parties—saw supply availability tighten after regulatory and tariff disruptions to key Asian suppliers, lifting prices for key retail offerings.

The Gingerbread Index fell by 29.01% YOY, driven by lower prices for wheat, sugar, butter, and eggs.

In contrast, the Vegan (plant‑based) Index, which includes commodities like pea protein isolate, carrots, potatoes, corn starch, tapioca starch, and carrageenan, climbed 23.10% YOY, driven largely by sharp increases in pea protein isolate and firmer corn starch values.

Together, these divergent trends suggest that holiday spending pressures will be selective: some traditional items may keep shoppers cautious, even as lower costs for baking essentials offer partial relief.

Expana tracks wholesale price action for key food items throughout the year. Peak holiday procurement periods vary based on commodity and seasonal factors. Additionally, retail prices can vary and often lag wholesale changes. Read on for more insight into each specific commodity category.