Conclusion

In summary, Expana’s 2025 US Christmas Dinner Index underscores how uneven the holiday cost landscape has become. The overall index increased nearly 11% YOY in November, signaling that while some festive staples are easing, others are climbing sharply enough to keep household budgets under pressure.

The Main Meal Index rose 12% YOY, largely driven by sustained highs in turkey, beef, and shrimp. Beyond the headline proteins, vegetable markets revealed mixed fortunes with potatoes falling 8% YOY and sweet potatoes gaining 4%. Carrots fell nearly 19% YOY on plentiful production.

And unlike the rest of the housing market, gingerbread houses look to be more affordable in 2025. Expana’s Gingerbread Index plunged by 29% YOY, a welcomed holiday treat for consumers. Declines in wheat, sugar, butter, and eggs helped to bring baking costs down in 2025.

For the mainstream shopper, this year’s festive basket shows stark contrasts: baking and some vegetables are cheaper, but centerpiece proteins and plant‑based alternatives carry a higher price tag—a split set to shape holiday menus and media headlines alike.

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