US Gingerbread Index
The gingerbread index comprises wheat, sugar, butter, eggs, ginger, and cassia. The Gingerbread Index fell by 29.01% YOY, driven by lower prices for wheat, sugar, butter, and eggs.
The Gingerbread Index:
- Wheat flour
- Sugar
- Butter
- Eggs
- Ginger
- Cassia
year-over-year
Wheat Flour
In November 2025, the monthly average US milling wheat price stood at $5.35/bu, up by 4.8% MOM and down by 3.0% YOY. Global wheat prices have been on a slow downward trend for the previous twelve months. However, the last few months have seen increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Russia has recently threatened to attack Ukrainian ports and the ships that dock there. This has supported wheat prices as market players are concerned that grain vessels could be targeted. The cost to insure vessels in the Black Sea continues to increase, directly impacting grain prices there.
Despite this, Black Sea origin wheat continues to be the cheapest on the global market. With the increased uncertainty, market players are watching to see if any demand shifts to the US. There continues to be adequate global supply, but there is the possibility of a supply shock if grain flows are affected in the Black Sea.
Sugar
The spot price of raw cane sugar (#16) at the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) New York reached $0.33/lb. in December 2025, a decrease of 11% YOY. Meanwhile, world raw sugar futures (ICE NY #11) reached a five-year low, at $0.14/lb. The decline is primarily driven by a global sugar surplus. The USDA is projecting a record global sugar production of roughly 189 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, a 4.7% increase YOY. The rise in estimates is based on higher production in Brazil and India, which is expected to offset declines in the European Union.
While domestic raw futures typically follow suit with world futures, industry participants expect spot and contract prices in the domestic market to lag global sentiment. In the US, the market has been quiet throughout the year based on improving supply availability and weaker demand. Sources tell Expana that excess supply has hampered demand and that consumers are eating less sugar.
Over the last five years, US sugar consumption has been steadily declining, according to USDA data. Some of the decrease can be attributed to the growing use of GLP-1 drugs. As a result, several industry players state that holiday preparations were lighter compared to last year.
Total US sugar imports are also projected to hit their lowest levels since 2007/08. In addition to declining sugar consumption, the USDA credits the reduction to a variety of factors including lower export quotas from Mexico and higher domestic production. The EBP for beet sugar spot Midwest was last assessed at $0.47/lb., while the EBP for cane sugar spot Southeast was most recently assessed at $0.50/lb. Beet sugar prices are steady with year ago levels while cane sugar prices have decreased 7% YOY.
Butter
US butter prices have declined notably in the lead-up to Christmas, extending a steady downward trend that has persisted throughout the second half of the year. The average price for Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) spot butter reached $1.60 per pound in November, representing a 7.9% MOM decrease and marking a substantial 40.7% YOY decline.
The continued price erosion reflects unseasonably strong production supported by elevated butterfat levels in milk supplies across major dairy regions coupled with rising milk production, that has led butter producers to take advantage of higher profit margins. The high production levels have led to surplus stock levels that have created persistent overhang that has kept prices depressed relative to prior year comparisons.
Eggs
The US shell egg market has entered the post-Thanksgiving reset, with order patterns shifting back toward more typical early-December volumes. Midwest Large, currently quoted at $2.58/dozen, has come under pressure in the first week of December as suppliers work through rapidly accumulating inventories. With the holiday surge behind and no major bird flu detections among commercial flocks in recent weeks, the market lacks the disruptive catalysts that often support values at this time of year. In turn, discounting in the open market has grown increasingly pronounced, particularly as buyers encounter ample supply and limited competition for available spot loads.
Despite remaining elevated by longer-term historical standards, current quotations sit well below last year’s levels. In the same period a year ago, Midwest Large hovered near $4.00/dozen—a reflection of heavier bird flu losses, stronger cross-border business, and limited imports. Today’s backdrop features fewer HPAI-related disruptions, a substantial drop-off in Canadian demand, and increased availability of foreign product, all of which have helped to temper pricing.
Whether the market steadies or stages a late-season rebound will hinge in large part on retailers’ post-Thanksgiving replenishment needs. For now, buying remains measured, and the outlook is further clouded by the perennial risks of winter weather and the possibility of renewed bird flu activity.
Ginger and Cassia
The average price of Chinese-origin ginger in Chicago fell by 13.98% YOY to $1.33/lb in November 2025 due to increase in imports from China. Ginger production in China in 2025, is expected to increase thus increasing exports to the US market. Offers from large shippers are scarce presently. Prices of Indonesian cassia (Vera, grade AA) sold in the US market were fell by 4.27% YOY to $3.59/lb in the third week of November 2025.
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