Turkey
With the industry now shifting from Thanksgiving into the Christmas buying window, wholesale whole bird prices have remained unchanged. The sharp rally that unfolded from January through October pushed monthly averages up 77.8%, taking the complex from the second-lowest point of the past decade to the second-highest seasonal level on record, trailing 2022 by just eight cents per pound. Since early November, our EBPs for whole turkeys have shown no meaningful movement, reinforcing that the core driver remains in supply, not shifting holiday demand.
Supply conditions are still historically tight. Over 3.7 million commercial meat-producing turkeys have been lost to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) so far in 2024, and ongoing disease-related livability issues continue to weigh on output. Cumulative headcount through the week ending November 22 stands at roughly 170 million, down 2.3% from last year and at the lowest seasonal level in roughly two decades.
Forward indicators remain uneven. Egg sets and poult placements through late summer sit among the lowest seasonal readings on record, and breeder-flock losses have reached over 130,000 birds this year. With expansion signals muted and wholesale prices holding at historically elevated levels, buyers are approaching the Christmas cycle cautiously. The same tight fundamentals that shaped Thanksgiving are fully intact as the industry closes out the year.
Pork Butts and Ham
US ¼-inch trimmed bone-in butts averaged $1.15/lb in November 2025 and experienced a softer trend as spot supplies increased and retail interest held at moderate levels for pulled pork material. Prices moved 6.9% lower month over month, slipping from $1.23/lb in October. Year over year, November butt values were down 3.1%, even as expanded slaughter kept supplies fully adequate and applied mixed influence across cuts. Export demand to South Korea was also a factor for butt movement, though total pork export volumes year to date are trending below last year’s levels according to the most recent USDA July export data.
US 23/27 bone-in ham values averaged $0.87/lb in November 2025, holding a barely steady tone for much of the period. Prices moved 15% lower month over month, falling from $1.00/lb in October as softer domestic demand and fully adequate hog supplies, expanded spot-market ham availability. Export interest from Mexico remained a moderate to active factor for ham movement even with the Mexican Peso being 10% stronger than this same time last year. Year over year, November ham values were down 3.6%, aligning with the barely steady to weaker tones that developed in early October and persisted through the month. Most interest now is focused on last-minute Christmas needs and early preparations for Easter 2026.
Beef
The 2025 Choice bone‑in ribeye has broken from the more predictable seasonal pattern seen in 2024, with prices multiple times eclipsing the highs of the COVID‑era in 2021. At $13.02/lb, current pricing is on par with 2024’s rally heading into the year‑end holidays.
Throughout much of the year, holiday rib discussions were marked by volatility. Concerns over constrained inventories spurred a late‑summer buying rush, as buyers moved aggressively to lock in product amid fears of shortages. These anxieties were reinforced by ongoing debates over the cattle cycle and expectations for available volumes going forward.
Choice bone‑in rib prices began climbing above year‑ago levels in early July by a considerable margin, only to settle into alignment with 2024 pricing as the Christmas holiday draws closer. This performance has unfolded against a backdrop of historically elevated average beef prices and slaughter rates that have trailed prior‑year volumes all year.
The current rally took shape earlier than usual, running from July through September, before leveling off into a three-month steady tone. With cattle prices easing in recent weeks, some market watchers believe the seasonal upswing has been tempered. However, historic trends suggest the Choice bone‑in ribeye may still have room for another upward leg before the year closes.
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