Softs
Sugar, Cocoa & Coffee
The average weekly spot price of ICE #11 Raw Sugar futures as of October 29 fell by 5.0% m-o-m and declined by 33.5% y-o-y to USc 14.70/lb. The average weekly price of spot ICE London #5 White Sugar futures as of October 29 fell 6.9% m-o-m and declined by 24.9% y-o-y to $425.22mt. During the São Paulo Sugar Week (Oct 20-24), the bearish sentiment prevailed as a consequence of the consensus around the Production-Consumption surplus estimated by most market players for the 2025-26 marketing year (MY; Oct-Sep basis) and the perspective of another strong production in the CS Brazil 2026-27 crop year (CY; Apr-Mar basis).
The average weekly spot price of ICE London Cocoa futures as of October 29 dropped by 11.1% m-o-m and by 19.9% y-o-y to £4,405.80/mt, while the average weekly spot price of ICE New York Cocoa futures decreased by 12.9% m-o-m and fell by 12.0% y-o-y to $6,177.20/mt. A plethora of cocoa grind data for Q3 was released in October. European grindings for the quarter were -4.8% down y-o-y (-5.3% down for 2024/25 ) or about 4,000 tonnes above industry expectations. North American grindings were surprisingly strong at +3.2% y-o-y for the quarter (down just -0.9% for 2024/25) compared to expectations of a -3.9% drop, though there were two new reporting companies.
The average weekly spot price of ICE New York Arabica futures as of October 29 rose by 7.8% m-o-m and by 59.3% y-o-y to USc 396.37/lb. Expana’s fundamental analysis continues to indicate that production will exceed demand in the 25/26 crop by a large amount. However, nearby stocks remain low and continue to fall. The rains arrived in Brazil, and the forecasts for November are positive. For the time being, Expana’s Fundamentals Team are of the opinion that immediate damage has been averted but follow-on rains are needed. The importance of monitoring the crop development and the impact of the weather in November has increased.
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