Expana’s
US Valentine's Day Index:
Falls in 2026 on Lower Cocoa, Sugar, and Lobster Prices
Valentine’s Day is a notoriously popular foodservice holiday as restaurants gear up to host couples, families, and the girl-favorite “galantine’s” group for an annual date night out. And while restaurants remain a popular option for many, retailers have managed to grab some of that consumer spending in recent years by offering a more budget-friendly alternative with home-cooked versions of Valentine’s favorites.
Synonymous with chocolate and sweets, strawberries and steak—Valentine's Day foods are exposed to the same price fluctuations as any other commodity. Whether eating out or cooking at home, let’s take a closer look at where some of these holiday staples sit at the wholesale level in 2026:
Expana’s US Valentine’s Meal Index consists of beef tenderloin, lobster tail, and potatoes. The index fell by 10.4% MOM and 7.8% YOY, driven by lower lobster tail and potato prices.
Expana’s US Valentine's Day Chocolate Index – consisting of cocoa beans, sugar and non-fat dried milk (NFDM) –fell by 4.5% month over month (MOM) and 44.0% year over year (YOY) in January 2026, driven by cocoa, sugar, and NFDM prices.
Cocoa prices in the US were markedly lower in 2025 than in the previous year as improved weather across West Africa, particularly in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, supported stronger crop prospects and eased the supply tightness that drove prices to record levels in 2024.
Read on to find out more, including price action for strawberries and vanilla during this heightened consumption period.
No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available to recipients or viewers of this content or associated documentation by Expana or its affiliates (“Expana”) otherwise constitutes or is to be taken as constituting, the giving of investment advice or an inducement to invest or purchase by Expana to any person, organisation or entity. Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this content. Any statement, observation, trend, price or otherwise presented herein is purely for discursive purposes only, is made on an “as-is” basis with no representation, warranty or otherwise. Any and all such content made available to you is open to interpretation and typographical error and Expana is not responsible for the accuracy of such content. To the maximum extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability to any recipient or viewer of this content or any other person or party for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. By viewing or using this content and/or subscribing to receive any associated documentation or further materials from us, you acknowledge and agree to the terms above.