Conclusion
Valentine’s Day could be extra sweet in 2026 as prices on a number of favorites dropped compared to last year.
Expana’s US Valentine’s Day Chocolate Index — composed of cocoa beans, sugar and non‑fat dried milk (NFDM) — fell 4.5% MOM and 44% YOY in January 2026.
Year-over-year Change
Month-over-month Change
The decline was broad‑based: cocoa led the drop after a dramatic retracement from 2024’s record highs, while sugar softened amid weakening domestic demand and changing consumption patterns.
And it’s not all about chocolate. Vanilla, once a pricey luxury, is trading at its lowest since 2013. Though the strawberry scene looks red‑hot with a 20.8% YOY jump driven by origin‑specific supply tightness.
Expana’s US Valentine’s Meal Index fell 7.8% YOY, led by lower lobster tails and potatoes. Beef tenderloin, more commonly known at foodservice as beef filet, remains higher compared to a year ago, however, prices are down from the month prior as buyers adapt to seasonal demand shifts.
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