US Valentine's Day Index 2025 Summary

Although US consumers and retailers will welcome more affordable meal prices than in 2024, the cost of confectionery this Valentine’s Day have soared due to an increase in cocoa bean prices. Lower prices for strawberries may provide a more attractive alternative to the more traditional chocolate.

Cocoa bean prices experienced an extraordinary rise of 150.2% y-o-y, driven by poor weather and smaller crops in the previous year as well as firm consumer demand that is only recently starting to ease as the high prices trickle through to the retail level. Several market sources have told Expana that retail sales of chocolate in Q4 2024 fell by approximately 10-15% y-o-y, and cocoa grindings figures in major consuming regions also eased slightly in Q4.

Overall, however, the chocolate index was shaped by soaring cocoa costs, with cocoa being far and away the largest cost in the manufacturing of chocolate. With several large chocolate makers experiencing a dip in sales in recent weeks, the combination of cocoa bean and product supply constraints, weather and disease uncertainty, and flagging consumer demand are expected to remain key price drivers for cocoa, all of which could lead to a very different forecast for next year’s Valentine’s season.

The Valentine’s Day Meal Index decreased by 4.5% y-o-y, owing to a drop in beef tenderloin prices and despite persistently high lobster tail prices.