Lamb Prices
ZF61 - Lamb ddwt trd sy dom SA AU
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
BL65 - Lamb ddwt 17.5kg ave mp
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
The Australia (AU) lamb price remained relatively unchanged at AUD 9,821/MT as of June 25, representing a 0.01% m-o-m decrease and up by 38.7% y-o-y.
The Australian lamb market was unchanged by the end of June as prices initially fell at the start of the month, to then recovered as improved demand and a smaller supply drove prices.
By the end of the month, prices started to ease due to a decline in quality and more buyer selectiveness, sources stated.
Meat & Livestock Australia reported that the sheep slaughter rate for June was reduced by around 8.1% y-o-y.
The New Zealand (NZ) lamb price stood at NZD 9,529.48/MT as of June 25, representing an 8% m-o-m increase and up by 47.5% y-o-y.
NZ lamb price rose sharply during the month, as supply continued its seasonal decline and underperforms compared to 2024. The latest New Zealand Meat Board production figures from May 2025 reports a sharp 26.9% y-o-y decline.
Slaughter rates in the first week of June, as reported by the New Zealand Meat Board, were reduced by 13.2% y-o-y, which is the lowest weekly amount since the first week of 2025, at 219,677 and is the ninth week in a row of negative y-o-y weekly movement.
Price Drivers
↓ Feed Costs EU
Feed grains are a significant component of livestock production costs. As a result, any price increase in maize (corn) and wheat could push prices of animal protein upward.
EU wheat prices declined following rising production forecasts and weak export demand. Sources believed that increased yields and production estimates, alongside a stronger euro, weighed on European prices.
Corn markets are also under pressure as war risks fade and the market begins to focus on fundamentals, which are currently suggesting ample supply from higher South American and US production, adequate weather conditions across the board, and relatively sluggish global demand.
↑ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite rose by 46% month-on-month to $3,333 per unit in June.
However, it is worth noting the high volatility of the index, as in the first half of June, the index grew dynamically against the backdrop of a surge in demand for transportation from Asia to the United States. Nevertheless, in the second half of the month, carriers quickly optimised their capacities and were able to quickly balance the market, after which container freight rates began to decline again.
↑ Energy Prices
The Brent crude oil average price increased by 10.0% m-o-m in June to $70.43/barrel, representing a drop of 15.14% y-o-y.
The price increase in June was noted in the week following the US's alignment with Israel in confronting Iran. The US attacked nuclear sites in Iran during week 25; this has added further uncertainty to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
↑ NZD Exchange Rate
New Zealand is a large exporter of meat products and predominately trades lamb in USD; therefore, the NZD value has a significant impact on the export of goods and the farm revenue generated.
The NZD has reached 0.6019 USD as of June 25, 2025. A strengthening of the NZD by 1.1% m-o-m, the increase this month contributes to hindering the export market for NZ lamb as prices are less attractive for buyers abroad, according to market sources.
Market Sentiment
Demand Remains Stronger than Supply
AU and NZ are both in a period of historical seasonal reduction of sheep meat output. The decline in supply appears to not be matched with demand. Market sources stated that demand has been and is expected to be more resilient as more market players trade with AU and NZ.
↑ Chinese Demand Growth
Beef + Lamb NZ expects demand for mutton from China to rebound as inventories are rebalanced. The influence of the increased tariff from the US could have spurred the sheep trade with China, according to market sources.
↓ US Trade Policy
US trade tariffs implemented on April 2 caused concern among NZ and AU. Some believed that international lamb trade will be minimally disrupted due to sheep products being an inelastic meat product within the US.
↑ Declining AU Slaughters
Market participants stated that Australian slaughter rates were historically set to decline in July.
↑ AU Planned Reduction of Breeding Ewes
The May 2025 Sheep Producers Intentions Survey (SPIS), ran in part by Meat & Livestock Australia, has revealed that 41% of participants have stated their plan to reduce ewe breeding flocks. Additionally, 20% of the participants stated a reduction of at least 25%. This comes as drought conditions have reduced pastures and higher feed costs make larger flocks difficult to maintain.
↑ Steady Alternative Demand
NZ lamb exports are anticipated to be a substitute for the shrinking domestic production of EU and UK lamb. Market participants expect NZ lamb to expand its market share in the EU in 2025 and benefit from the higher EU prices.
↓ NZ Lamb Declining Export Trend
NZ historical export data from Beef + Lamb New Zealand shows that following May, lamb exports typically begin to trend downwards till the end of the season (September).
↑ NZ Lamb Production Seasonality
Following May NZ lamb production decreases according to historical trends. Additionally, Beef + Lamb NZ forecasts a fall in lamb production for 2024/25. Forecast figures for NZ indicate a production decrease of approximately 6.6%, dropping to 325,800 tons.
↓ NZ Farm Inflation Negative
Beef + Lamb New Zealand Farm Inflation Report stated that total input prices fell from March 2024 to March 2025 mostly driven by decreases in weed and pest killer, fuel and interest rates. For a calculated fall of 0.6% on-farm inflation.
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