EU Pork Price Forecast

The European Union (EU) is the world’s second biggest pork producer after China and is the leading pork exporter. EU pork exports have risen as Chinese importers increasingly turn to EU and South American suppliers to avoid US tariffs. Pork prices in the EU have rebounded since an early-year dip, supported by grilling demand and export momentum, although they remain below year-ago levels.

EU Pork Trends

EU pork production increased during Q1 2025. According to the latest European commission data, total pork meat output was reported at 5,61 million MT, reflecting an increase of 3.2% compared to the same period in 2024. While this is partially attributed to an increase in slaughter numbers, the primary driver has been rising slaughter weights during H1. Total slaughter numbers grew by 1.25% year-on-year during Q1 2025, reaching 57,07 million head during the first quarter. Slaughter weights were supported throughout Q1 by cheap feed costs and good feed conversation rates, reported by market participants. While EU production output increased, stock levels remained tight. Fresh production matched demand, leaving limited opportunity to build up stocks, reported multiple industry sources.

According to the latest European commission data, EU exports of fresh and frozen pork meat reached 540,589 MT during Q1 2025, an increase of 2.2% compared to the same period during the previous year. Strong exports during February and March outweighed a slow start to January. The largest trade partner for the EU remains China, with a 21.3% share of the EU fresh and frozen meat exports. This is followed by Japan (12.9%) and South Korea (11.3%). Strong demand from China, linked to trade tensions between the US and China, has supported the growth of EU exports during Q1 2025.

Following the implementation of tariffs, Chinese buyers switched to alternative sourcing regions in the EU and South America to avoid paying tariffs, boosting EU exports. Despite the trade agreement between the US and China that reduced tariffs on pork meat, Chinese buyers have continued to diversify their sourcing, supporting EU pork exports. A similar picture has been reported on total pork exports, including meat, processed products, and by products, with EU exports increasing to 1,103,833 MT during Q1, an increase of 3.2% compared to the same period in 2024.

Following a sharp price decrease during January, the price for EU pork carcasses has increased consistently. With Expana's Benchmark prices (EBP – BW56) for pork carcass S grade EU reaching 2.12/kg on June 10, this reflects a price increase of 7.6% compared to the beginning of the year. Although prices have increased since the beginning of the year, levels during the first week of June 2025 remain 5.8% lower than the same period last year.

Similarly, pork and pork trimming prices reflected bearish market sentiment in January but shifted to a bullish trend with continued price increases in the following months. Price trends across the carcass were largely driven by sluggish buying interest in the first month of the year, followed by steady demand. A warm, dry spring further boosted retail demand, with strong interest in grilling items reported in late Q1 and continuing into Q2. Robust export demand has continued to bolster bullish market sentiment in the EU pork market so far this year, according to market sources.