Chicken Prices
Comcode: 21626 - WOG CHICKENS 3-3.5 lbs, Northeast
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
BY18 - Chicken ddwt mp EU
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
3-3.5 lbs. WOG chicken values remained steady throughout most of June, with spot quotations notching $0.02/lb. lower during the tail end of the month in response to a pullback in retail and cutting demand. This scenario primarily impacted the 3-4lb. birds, the lighter (3lb/down) and heavier (4lb/up) offerings remained stable and well-accounted for across most points of sale.
The monthly average value of 3-3.5 lbs. WOGs is currently positioned at $1.22/lb. delivered. This quotation is on par with the five-year seasonal average.
In June 2025, chicken prices across the European Union rose by 3.7% m-o-m, reaching €3.03/kg. This marked a significant price increase, largely attributed to widespread supply chain disruptions.
Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and Newcastle Disease in several EU member states intensified supply constraints. These challenges were compounded by a sharp decline in poultry imports, following an HPAI outbreak in Brazil, one of the EU’s key suppliers.
Adding to the upward pressure, strong seasonal demand further drove prices higher, pushing chicken costs to record levels for the month.
Price Drivers
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite index increased by 46.5% M-O-M to $3,332.8 per unit in June.
However, it is worth noting the high volatility of the index, as in the first half of June, the index grew dynamically against the backdrop of a surge in demand for transportation from Asia to the United States. Nevertheless, in the second half of the month, carriers quickly optimized their capacities and were able to balance the market, after which container freight rates began to decline again.
↑ Energy Prices
The Brent crude oil price increased by 9.2% M-O-M in June to $63.73/barrel, representing a 15.7% Y-O-Y fall.
In June, crude oil prices rose due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically missile strikes between Israel and Iran.
Players in the crude oil market were concerned throughout the month about supply disruption, especially following the use of ‘bunker buster’ bombs by the US on Iran.
↓ Feed Costs
Feed grains are a significant component of livestock production costs. As a result, any price increase in maize (corn) and wheat could push prices of animal protein upward.
EU wheat prices declined following rising production forecasts and weak export demand. Sources believed that increased yields and production estimates, alongside a stronger euro pressured European prices.
Corn markets are also under pressure as war risks fade and the market begins to focus on fundamentals, which are currently suggesting ample supply from higher South American and US production, adequate weather conditions across the board, and relatively sluggish global demand.
↑ Currency Exchange Rates
In June 2025, the USD fell against the EUR, a decline of by 3.2% M-O-M and 8.6% Y-O-Y.
Uncertainty remained the key driver of the USD decline in June, specifically through tariffs and the conflict between Israel and Iran. The US decision to attack three Iranian uranium enrichment sites has added to unpredictability, according to sources. The June 18 decision by the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates resulted in a sideways USDX movement, with officials still split on when the next cut should take place.
Market Sentiment
EU Market Sentiment
Strong Domestic Demand and Weaker Supplies
Limited supply, due to lower y-o-y headcounts and chicken placements, coupled with strong domestic demand, supports a bullish sentiment.
↑ Broiler Headcount and Average Live Weight Advance
According to the USDA, cumulative chicken headcount through the week ending June 21, reached 4.1 billion. This figure resides 1.8%, or 74.4 million head, above a similar period one year prior.
The cumulative average live weight reading stands at 6.5 lbs. This compares to 6.58 lbs. realized one year prior.
↑ Domestic Demand
Retail and foodservice demand was somewhat mixed throughout June depending on the item in question. While value-driven outreach and promotional activity for wings carried prices higher, retreating seasonal needs for boneless breasts and thigh meat left these two lines searching for price support at a significant discount. Overall, marketing sentiment remained bullish given the relatively attractive price of chicken relative to other proteins.
↑ Chicken Exports
According to the USDA’s latest export data through the end of April, total outbound volume reached 551 million pounds. This represents a 4%, or 21.3 million pound, advance from 2024. Export-facing trade sentiment is somewhat tentative given the ongoing uncertainty related to disease. However, pockets of improved inquiries from Mexico help to instill a degree of restrained optimism in the mind of some sellers.
US Market Sentiment
High Demand
An expected decline in both domestic production and import volumes, coupled with rising consumption, is fueling a bullish market outlook for chicken meat in the EU.
↑ Decline in Chicken Production
EU chicken production is projected to decline in Q3 2025, driven by a surge in disease outbreaks across several member states, according to market sources. In particular, a large-scale outbreak of Newcastle Disease in Poland's key poultry-producing regions is expected to significantly reduce the country’s export capacity to other EU markets. As a result, overall chicken meat availability within the EU could face further downward pressure in the coming quarter.
↑ Robust Demand
Chicken meat consumption across the EU is likely to continue to maintain its upward trajectory, bolstered by chicken’s affordability and demand driven by summer barbecue-related consumption.
↑ Expectations of Lower Imports
In response to a confirmed outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in mid-May 2025, the European Union implemented a sweeping, countrywide ban on poultry imports from Brazil. This abrupt measure has introduced further uncertainty into the EU market, given Brazil’s role as a major supplier. Compounding the situation, the EU has also opted to reinstate import quotas and tariffs on Ukrainian poultry, reverting to pre-war trade terms. This policy shift is expected to significantly constrain poultry inflows from Ukraine, further tightening supply across the region.
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