US Pork Price Forecast
The US ranks as the world’s third-largest producer and consumer of pork.The US is a net exporter of pork, supported by productivity gains in recent decades that have enabled the US pork industry to expand its share of global exports. Currently, there are supply-side concerns due to outbreaks of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) and Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv). While pork production has held relatively steady, exports to China have recently slowed due to tariffs, contributing to a broader decline in US pork shipments.
US Pork Trends
The US pork sector remains in full seasonal motion, with demand gaining momentum as the summer grilling season advances. According to weekly USDA data, year-to-date federally inspected pork production through the second week of June was 0.1% below year-ago levels, while year-to-date hog slaughter was down about 0.5% compared to the same period in 2024. Average federally inspected carcass weights (215 lbs) and live hog weights (289 lbs) were each about one pound heavier than year-ago levels, based on data through the second week of June. This reflects ongoing variability related to weather, holiday schedules, and disease pressures, including continued cases of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) and more recent reports of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv), as noted by market participants and the Swine Health Information Center reports.
According to USDA’s March Hogs and Pigs Report, the total US hog and pig inventory as of March 1 stood at 74.5 million head, slightly below year-ago levels and 1% lower than in December 2024. The breeding herd was estimated at 5.98 million head, also down 1% from both the prior quarter and year. Market hog inventory totaled 68.5 million head. Farrowings from December through February reached 2.89 million head, accounting for 48% of the breeding herd. The average number of pigs saved per litter was 11.65, up from 11.53 a year earlier. Farrowing intentions for March through May were reported at 2.91 million head, down 1%, suggesting a modest tightening in near-term supply heading into late summer.
USDA cold storage data supports a view of a tighter market. Total pork inventories at the end of April were reported at 455.8 million pounds, up 11.3% from March but still 8.7% below year-ago levels. This marked the third-lowest April total since data collection began in 1999. Hams led the monthly increase, with bone-in stocks up 26.9% and boneless hams up 53.2%. Despite the gains, total ham inventories were 7.5% lower than last year. Bellies rose 9.3% from March but remained 22.3% lower year-over-year, underscoring ongoing tightness. Bone-in loins declined 11%, while boneless loins increased 4.6%, resulting in a slight net decrease. Ribs rose 2.5% and were slightly above last year’s levels. Butts declined 0.7% and are now at a 52-week low. Although some categories posted monthly increases, overall inventory remains light by historical standards.
Mexico remains the top destination for US pork exports, accounting for 39.3% of total shipments in Q1 2025, particularly in bone-in hams and variety meats. A stronger peso and limited domestic poultry supply have supported trade. Shipments to China remain minimal due to high effective tariffs which continue to hover near 57%, despite a partial rollback announced in May.
According to USDA data released June 6, US pork exports for the month of April 2025 totaled 582.9 million pounds, down 9.1% from March and 11.1% below the same month last year. Mexico led with 205.3 million pounds, though that was down 16.9% year-over-year. Japan imported 93.9 million pounds (–13.6%), and China received 32.2 million pounds (–14.5%), as trade remained limited by tariff headwinds. Canada posted the steepest monthly decline, falling 50.5% to 23.2 million pounds. In contrast, Colombia rose 53.7% year-over-year (y-o-y) to 33.5 million pounds, while South America increased 40.2% to 35.6 million pounds. Central America imported 43.4 million pounds (+3.6%) and the Caribbean held relatively steady at 29.2 million pounds (–0.5%). Export activity overall was mixed, with declines across several major markets partially offset by gains in select regions.
The Expana Pork Cutout value has risen approximately 21.9% since mid-April and now stands about 5% above year-ago levels, reaching $112.87/cwt by the end of the second week of June, surpassing 2022 levels for this period. At retail, bacon, ribs, and chops were among the most actively featured cuts, as consumers continued seeking value amid elevated beef prices. Ribs maintained strong momentum ahead of the July Fourth holiday, with broad support from both retail ads and foodservice promotions. Pork butts are rated full steady to firm, supported by demand for pulled pork in regions such as the South and Midwest, where seasonal weather has been favorable. Bone-in loins are mostly steady to higher on both international interest and increased processor activity. Boneless loin movement remains mixed, with demand varying between domestic and export channels, and some contributors noting resistance at current price points. Bellies are called full steady to firm on improved bacon movement, supported by sustained seasonal demand and tight spot and frozen availability. Trimming supplies continue to be limited for both lean and fat materials, as interest in pork trim remains active due to elevated boneless beef prices. Boneless hams are seeing active interest for deli use, while bone-in hams remain competitively priced into Mexico and are also being processed domestically into boneless form.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has not directly impacted pork production but has limited poultry availability, prompting price-competitive protein substitutions, particularly boneless hams in place of boneless turkey thigh meat where applicable. As spring continues, pork categories remain supported by seasonal buying trends, slightly lower production, and shifting consumer protein choices. Some processors and retailers expect to observe a gradual transition in demand toward items more commonly featured in cooler months, such as roasts, sausages, and deli meats, following the height of the grilling and summer seasons.
US Pork Butts Forecast
Prices at US cents (USc) 1.65/lb are currently considered fair by our analysis. The regression fair band suggests that prices need to be between USc 1.50-1.78 to be fair. The trend of the fair band is also taken into account and has been increasing for several months. This has amplified the increase in prices. Additional key fundamentals we analyze have also been trending higher for months, reinforcing this bullish outlook.
Seasonally, pork butt prices typically rise through Q2 mainly due to increased demand during the grilling season. This is followed by a decrease in Q3. While butts themselves aren't traded by speculators, the CME lean hog contract provides insight. With trade uncertainty and tariffs in play, some sideways movement is possible.
Technical analysis is also showing strength, with prices above the moving average and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is above its signal line, both of which are bullish signals.
Overall, this suggests an increase to a peak in Q2 near $1.70, followed by a decrease in Q3. Clients were previously advised to initiate a long-term hedge in January, which covered anticipated needs through August of 2025.
US Pork Ribs Forecast
Prices at USc 1.76/lb. sit in the middle of the fundamentally fair value range of (USc 1.53–1.88/lb.). This suggests prices are fair; however, the fair band continues to trend higher, which will put a slight upward pressure on prices. The anticipated move toward target 9 is expected to peak during Q2 near USc 1.80/lb.
Seasonality shows ribs typically rise in May and peak sometime in Q2. However, ribs didn’t follow seasonal trends in late 2024, reducing reliability. Still, seasonality points to short-term upward risk through Q2.
The USDA projects a decline in pork rib inventories into 2025, supporting higher prices. Production costs also fell last month, led by cheaper feeder pig prices, which will limit further downside risk for now.
Technically, prices are above the moving average, and the MACD is above its signal line, further indicating upward price pressure.
Overall prices are expected to continue to rise in the second half of Q2 around USc 1.70-1.80. Analysis then suggests that prices will decrease in Q3 2025.
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