Cod
Cod
Price movements (monthly)
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Norwegian Frozen Cod: Gutted, Headless, 1-2.5kg
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Groundfish - Cured or Smoked Fish - Salted Cod
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Cod Atlantic fzn (NO) exp World
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Norwegian cod prices increased
by 14.2% Q-o-Q due to more active purchasing, and limited supply caused by a decrease in quota in 2025.
Decrease of 2026 Atlantic Cod TAC
Total Atlantic cod quota (TAC) for 2026, set jointly by Norway and Russia, has been reduced by 16% compared to the 2025 quota. The combined TAC will be 285,000 metric tons, with Norway allocated 139,827 mt. The Norwegian government comments that this agreement is essential for the sustainable management of fish stocks in the Barents Sea.
Farmed Cod Exports firm growth
Exports of farmed cod in November reached 1,686 mt, an increase of 61.6 y-o-y. In addition, the export value increased by 83%, according to the Norwegian Seafood Council. Under these conditions, Norwegian farmed cod is showing positive production performance, which may help increase the availability of cod amid the current supply shortage.
Cod
Supply trends
Exports of Norwegian cod up to Nov account for 78.5% of total exports in 2024
Fresh cod remains the largest export category (33,192 mt), followed by frozen cod (28,195 mt).
The top three export destinations are still Portugal, Denmark, and the UK.
Exports to Portugal fell by 3.1% YTD, while exports to Denmark and the UK declined by 20.7% and 7.9%, respectively.
China continues to display a significant reduction in purchases, with exports down by 44.8% YTD.
Shrimp
Price drivers
Declining cod capture in Norway
Accumulated landings up to November reached 157,706 mt, accounting for a decrease of 19.0% YTD. This may be related to the current reduction of the quota for 2025 by 25%.
Cheaper brent crude oil
The Brent crude oil average price dropped by 3.2% M-o-M in December 2025 to $61.6/barrel, representing a reduction of 15.8% Y-o-Y.
Crude oil came under pressure from oversupply and weak demand. Oil prices have been trending down since the end of October 2025.
Rising shipping costs
Shipping costs from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased by 14.1% M-o-M to $2,380 per unit in December 2025, a 50.6% decrease compared to the previous year.
This increate seems to be a commercial tactical move by carriers rather than evidence of strong underlying demand. Companies are applying gradual hikes to test customer tolerance and try to steady the market. Yet weak volumes and persistent oversupply mean these measures may be short-lived, and downward pressure is likely to return as soon as market conditions allow, according to a source.
Cod
Price forecast
Cod fzn 1-2.5kg del NO
- Cod prices have been on a strong upward trend throughout 2025, reaching a record high of NOK 105.9/kg in late December. This increase has been supported by reduced quotas and concerns about tight supply.
- Our models indicate prices are overvalued and, in a bubble, suggesting a possible approaching peak.
- Seasonally, we expect prices to decline to a low in January or February. Given that cod prices are currently at a premium compared to other proteins, such as Norwegian salmon, the potential for further increases may be limited.
- Additionally, technical indicators are signaling a potential peak, with an overbought RSI and divergences suggesting an increased risk of a near-term decline.
- Elevated cod prices are expected to negatively affect demand, as customers may switch to alternative proteins. Nevertheless, the upward price trend remains intact, and supply remains tight. A significant shift in supply and demand dynamics will be necessary for prices to decrease
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