Pork
Pork
Price movements (monthly)
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Pig ddwt grade S exw EU EBP [BW56]
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Pork Carcass Cutout - Value EBP [4621]
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Pork Trimmings - 72% Trim Combo - (TL) EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Pork Belly - Derind Belly 11-13# - (TL) EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
EU Pork
The EU pork market sentiment remained weak during the month, driven by a combination of strong supply and weak overall demand.
The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Pig Deadweight Grade S EXW was assessed at €1,56/kg on December 30, down by €0.10/kg on the month.
US Pork
The dressed price of US negotiated hogs averaged $0.70/lb in December 2025, down 10.1% on the month, and 12.8% lower Y-o-Y.
Fair demand
In December 2025, roasting demand tied to Christmas and New Year’s holiday features provided some short-term support, though supplies historically continued to outweigh demand. Hog weights trended higher with cooler winter weather, adding to available tonnage and limiting sustained upside in pork values despite periods of active holiday buying.
US Hog supplies
The December Hogs and Pigs report showed total US hog and pig inventory up 1.4% from Q3, while 0.4% lower Y-O-Y at 75.50 million head. The breeding herd increased 0.3% quarter over quarter, but remained 0.8% below last year, while market hog inventory rose 1.5% from Q3 and was 0.3% lower Y-O-Y. Pigs saved per litter increased modestly, partially offsetting lower year-over-year farrowings.
Pork
Supply trends
Global
Global pork production is expected to increase by 171,000 MT Y-O-Y in 2026 to 117.168 million MT CWE, according to the latest USDA forecast.
While EU pork meat production figures are expected to decrease during 2026 by 1.2%, driven by structural changes across the region. While the EU’s production output is anticipated to drop, the Chinese and the USA’s production is forecasted to remain unchanged during 2026 according to the latest USDA forecast.
Brazil, Vietnam, Russia, and Canada are anticipated to show an increase in production, supporting the overall growth according to the USDA production forecast.
US
As of the latest data available from the USDA, year-to-date (y-t-d) federally inspected pork production through November 2025 totaled 24,960.2 million lbs., reflecting a y-t-d decline of roughly 1.5% from the same time frame in 2024. Month-on-month (M-o-M), November 2025 production fell to 2,224.0 million lbs., representing a 12.5% M-o-M decline compared with October.
The average dressed hog weight in November was 218 lbs., 2 lbs. heavier than October and 3 lbs. above November 2024.
EU
EU pork production in September 2025 increased by 11.3% M-o-M to 1.84 million MT, which reflects an increase of 9.7% compared to September 2024, the latest European Commission data shows. Cumulative production from January-August 2025 was up by approximately 3.3% Y-O-Y.
Slaughter numbers and weights increased during the month, supporting the M-O-M growth of production. Low feed costs supported the elevated slaughter weights across the region.
Pork
Price drivers
Rising freight rates
The shipping 40ft container composite index [Expana code: ZB99] stood at $2070/unit in December 2025.
Container freight rates continued to rise in December. Expectations for a recovery in shipping in the Red Sea have not been met, and carriers are still seeking to avoid this route, considering it unsafe.
Feed Costs
In December, the USDA raised its 2025/26 global wheat forecast by 1.1% m-o-m to 837 million mt. According to market sources, the overall European winter wheat seeding has met expectations, and crop development is generally favourable, limiting upside pressure on prices.
EU production for the 2025/26 season has been revised down to 57.5 million mt from an earlier forecast of 59.5 million mt, reflecting a record-low planted area in key producing countries and reduced import flows into the region. US corn retains a strong competitive edge, supported by expectations of record export demand in the 2025/26 marketing year.
Electricity Prices
In Europe, lower natural gas prices weighed on electricity prices, with the former commodity functioning as a major input for electricity generation. Furthermore, electricity generation increased across the continent.
Players anticipate heightened heating demand over winter, but with declining natural gas prices, some participants believe any electricity price rises could be limited.
Prices rose marginally in the US, following the recent trend in natural gas prices prior to the December mild correction.
In line with colder weather forecasts, market sources expect a continued increase in heating demand.
Pork
Price forecast
Bellies, Butts, and Trimmings are not moving together. They are experiencing different price pressures and need to be looked at individually.
UB Pork Belly - Derind Belly 11-13# - (TL) EBP
- Derind bellies are moving sideways and likely near their low point.
- Technically, the presence of a bullish divergence will amplify the expected move higher.
- Frozen pork belly inventories in weeks of consumption are above the moving average, which introduces further upward price pressure.
- This price strength is expected to last until mid-February.
UB Pork Butt - 1/4 Trimmed Butt VAC - (TL) EBP
- Pork Butts recently peaked at Target 14, which was covered by a short-term hedge.
- Prices are expected to continue to decrease until mid-February.
- Technically, prices remain above the moving average, and the MACD is above its dotted signal line, suggesting that prices are not in a downtrend, and this could be a temporary move lower before upward price pressure re-enters the market.
- Overall, this February forecast is supported by technical analysis; the increase from February is supported by fundamentals, including seasonality.
UB Pork Trimmings - 72% Trim Combo - (TL) EBP
- Pork Trimmings have continued to increase and are expected to reach a peak in the coming days/weeks.
- Technically, prices are above the moving average, but the MACD remains below the signal line, indicating there is sideways pressure in the market.
- There is also a bearish divergence on the chart, suggesting that downward pressure is building.
- Downward pressure is building for trimmings; the expected decrease is expected to last until late February.
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