South America & Asia
Data and analysis for Ecuador, Peru and Indonesia
Ghana
The forward selling state marketing boards in West Africa increased the pace of forward sales in June. However, sales for the 2025/26 crop remain well below normal for the time of the year. Therefore, there will be an unusually large amount of origin selling for the market to absorb between now and the end of the crop year if the origins are to sell sufficient cocoa before the start of the season to establish a fixed farmer price for the main crops.
Cameroon
During June cocoa butter ratios fell by 25 ratio points to 2.25 times the futures price, the lowest since August 2023.
This is a sign of weak demand from the chocolate industry which makes us more pessimistic about prospects for grindings in Q2.
We have reduced our 2024/25 grindings estimate for Ivory Coast to 660,000 tonnes to reflect the likely lack of availability of beans in the second half of the crop year. Along with other smaller changes to our consumption estimates, this reduces our 2024/25 global grindings estimate to 4,700,000 tonnes, -3.3% yoy. If confirmed, this would represent the weakest global grindings since 2017/18.
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