European Easter Bakery Index
Expana’s Europe Easter Bakery Index includes the commodities used to make cakes and pastries. The index fell by 35.9% YOY to €578.3/mt, driven by high wheat, butter, and milk prices.
Breakdown by components:
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Wheat
Euronext Milling Wheat settled at €203.25/MT on March 20, reflecting a 3.17% MOM increase but remaining 10.17% below year-ago levels.
The YOY decline continues to be driven by a substantial expansion in global supply. Total wheat production for the 2025/26 marketing year is projected at a record 841.8 million MT, up 5.2% from the previous season. This increase is largely underpinned by strong output across key exporting regions, including the EU and Russia, alongside record harvests in Canada and Argentina, and solid production in Ukraine. As a result, market participants broadly anticipate that ample global availability should weigh on prices through Q2 2026 and shape international trade flows.
Despite this bearish supply backdrop, geopolitical developments have provided some short-term support. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have introduced a modest risk premium into wheat futures, contributing to the recent monthly price increase, although no significant disruption to global grain flows has been observed to date. Higher freight, energy, and fertilizer costs are also expected to lend near-term support to prices.
Looking ahead, market attention remains firmly focused on geopolitical risks, encompassing not only tensions between the US and Iran but also the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. As the 2026/27 marketing year approaches, market focus is likely to focus on peace negotiations and their potential implications for Black Sea export availability. According to Expana sources, any shift in regional supply dynamics could materially influence global pricing and trade patterns.
Butter
The EBP for unsalted Butter EXW EU was €4,452/MT in March, up 6.5% MOM, down 40.6% YOY.
While EU butter prices increased strongly during Q1 2026, prices remain strongly below 2025 levels. Following a strong price correction during the second half of 2025, driven by ample supply outweighing steady demand and increased stock levels across the EU, market sentiment during Q1 2026 was reported as steady.
In line with other dairy commodities, weak price levels across the dairy fat complex attracted the buy side, generating strong demand through the first three months of the year. However, elevated butter stock levels across the EU have limited the upward price potential compared to the dairy powder complex. Continued strong milk intakes during the first quarter supported fresh butter production, according to industry sources. Recent price increases and the upcoming milk season across the EU have reduced buying interest during March, with prices starting to show a downward trend during the last two weeks of the month.
Sultanas
The EBP for Turkish sultanas (FOB Turkey) was down to €2,273/MT on March 18, a decrease of 1% MOM and 21% YOY as weak demand continues to pressure prices. Between September 1 and March 14, Turkey exported an estimated 77,100 MT of sultanas, down 17% YOY, according to the Aegean Exporters' Association (EIB). The decline reflects both lower production during the 2025/26 campaign and buyer hesitance to commit to long-term contracts amid elevated market prices.
The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) projects Turkish 2025/26 sultana production at approximately 220,000 MT, a 3% YOY decline, and significantly below average volumes. Some sources in Turkey suggest output could fall 10,000-20,000 MT below the INC projection. This is due to severe frost last year in April which damaged numerous crops across major sultana-producing areas, with temperatures falling below zero in mid-April.
Despite the production shortfall, the market remains sluggish as buyers limit purchases to immediate needs, despite modest price declines over recent months.
Milk
The EBP for Milk EXW Germany was assessed at €143.30/MT during March, a decrease of 42.1% MOM and a decrease of 72.9% YOY.
The liquid milk market remained volatile during Q1 2026. Following strong price decreases during the second half of 2025 driven by strong milk production across the EU, growing demand supported an upward price move during January and February, which was followed by another price correction during March, with prices decreasing sharply.
Spot milk supply across the EU remains elevated, according to multiple market sources, with fresh intakes in countries outpacing previous years' numbers. Additionally, milk quality has been reported to be in line with seasonal expectations, as milk fat and protein content meet seasonal averages, according to industry players.
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