European Easter Chocolate Index
Expana’s Europe Easter Chocolate commodities fell by 52.9% YOY to €2,006.4/MT in March 2026, driven by a decline in cocoa and sugar prices.
Breakdown by components:
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Cocoa
Cocoa prices on the ICE London exchange have undergone a dramatic correction over the past year, following the historic peak of £10,137/MT reached in April 2024. Through 2025, prices remained highly volatile, with a secondary peak near £9,300/MT in January 2025 before entering a sustained downward trend. By February 2026, monthly average prices had fallen to approximately £2,553/MT, declining further to around £2,323/MT in March (until March 20), marking a sharp YOY contraction and a return to levels not seen since early 2023.
For Easter procurement, this shift is particularly relevant. Chocolate manufacturers typically secure a significant portion of cocoa requirements 6–12 months in advance, meaning much of the cocoa used for Easter 2025 products was purchased during the extreme price environment of 2024.
In contrast, procurement for Easter 2026 largely occurred during the steep correction phase from mid-2025 onwards, significantly reducing input cost pressures despite lingering volatility.
The steep fall reflects improved supply expectations, reduced speculative selling pressure, and demand destruction following the 2024 price shock. While prices have stabilized at lower levels in Q1 2026, they remain sensitive to West African crop developments, leaving some residual volatility risk ahead as demand looks set to increase in the coming quarters.
Skimmed Milk Powder
The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Skimmed Milk Powder EXW Europe was assessed at €2,655/MT during March, up 10.4% MOM, which reflects an increase of 11.7% YOY.
Following a weak market sentiment during the second half of 2025 with prices decreasing on the back of strong SMP production and weak global demand, the EU SMP market complex was reported as firm throughout Q1 2026, with price levels increasing during three consecutive months.
The price decrease during the second half of 2025 generated strong demand across the domestic and international market as EU SMP was discounted compared to other key producing regions such as New Zealand, the US, and South America. Domestic buyers indicated price levels below budget prices, leading to active sourcing during Q1. Additional upward price pressure was reported from a tight supply situation across the US, leading to tight supply across the global SMP market.
Sugar
The price of white sugar (ex-works, EU region 2) fell by 26.9% YOY to €410/mt in March 2026, with the price having been flat at this level for the past three months. Prices remained above €500/mt until October, after which they fell steadily until mid-December. In February, global sugar prices reached their lowest level since 2020.
An unusually dry and warm spring followed by a wet summer in key growing countries led to an exceptionally high sucrose content in beets, offsetting a 10.4% reduction in the harvested area.
Expana estimates EU sugar production at 15.5 million MT for the 2025/26 crop year, down by 2.3% YOY on a 9.0% rise in the sugar yield, resulting in a modest surplus for the year.
Looking ahead to 2026/27, Expana forecasts a 9.0% contraction in the harvested area as sugar producers are incentivizing their growers to make substantial reductions to the acreage planted with sugar beet in the hope of stabilizing prices. The YOY decline in sugar production is expected to be greater on the assumption that the exceptionally high sugar yields of 2025/26 are unlikely to be repeated.
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