Price analysis by commodity
Cocoa Bean Terminal Prices
With the average spot ICE London cocoa futures reaching £3,829/mt (€4,414/mt) in January 2026, the price fell by 57.2% YOY. In contrast, at the same time last year, the price had surged by 144.5% compared to January 2024. This fall resulted in downward pressure on cocoa butter and liquor prices, which fell throughout 2025. In contrast, cocoa powder ratios firmed, supported by an increasing use of powder in chocolate substitute formulations, which allowed manufacturers to stretch beans and reduce costs, keeping powder relatively more valuable in the market.
For reference, the Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Cocoa Butter Spot EXW Europe set a record in December 2024 of €40,268/mt, but in 2025 the maximum value was 27.7% lower at €31,540/mt on January 20, 2025, and fell to a low of €8,281/mt on November 24, 2025.
Cocoa prices were considerably cheaper in 2025 than 2024, supported by improved weather in West Africa, particularly Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which boosted main-crop output and eased the prior year’s tight supply. Global grindings softened as manufacturers and consumers adjusted to record-high prices, leading to sustained selling pressure throughout 2025.
London spot futures (COCL) traded near £9,000/mt in January 2025, below the April 2024 peak of £10,137/mt, but nearly five times higher than the 10-year average prior to 2024. Prices dropped below £6,500/mt by early March 2025, before a brief rebound to £7,700/mt in mid-May as buyers extended coverage. The second half of 2025 saw continuous declines amid a year-end surplus and weaker demand, with COCL spot hitting a 2025 low of £3,643/mt in late November.
Although Valentine's Day 2026 chocolate was already priced before the price drops of late 2025, the scale of the downturn marks a clear reversal from last year’s price environment, with benefits expected to materialize in subsequent seasonal demand periods.
Sugar Terminal Prices
The sugar price in western Europe decreased by 21.9% YOY to €410/mt in January 2026 but was flat MOM. Prices remained above €500/mt until October, after which they fell steadily until December. In November, global sugar prices reached their lowest level since 2020.
An unusually dry and warm spring followed by a wet summer in key growing countries led to an exceptionally high sugar content in beets, offsetting a 10.6% reduction in the planted area. Expana forecasts EU sugar production at 15.1 million mt for the 2025-26 crop year, down by 4.8% YOY on a 6.7% rise in the sugar yield.
The EU market is expected to be largely balanced, with both imports and exports in the region of 1.7-1.8 million mt and closing stocks little changed YOY at 2.4-2.5 million mt. In other trade news, the EU has confirmed that Ukraine will have a sugar import TRQ of 100,000 mt for 2026 (annualized from June 2025), well below the 2024 TRQ of 262,000 mt (annualized to May 2025).
Looking ahead to 2026-27, Expana forecasts an 8.6% decline in the planted area as sugar producers are incentivizing their growers to make substantial reductions in the hope of stabilizing prices.
Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP)
The Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for EU SMP averaged €2,111,43/mt in January 2026, representing a decrease of 15.97% YOY. However, recent price movements have shown a 7.7% MOM increase. The overall price decrease compared to the previous year can largely be attributed to the supply situation across the Dairy complex. Milk intakes throughout the EU following the peak of the milk season in May 2025 remained elevated through the remainder of 2025.
This surplus of milk axiality supported the production for the SMP and Butter complex. According to the latest available Eurostat data, the cumulative product for January-October 2025 increased by 2.4% y-o-y to 1,077,400 MT.
While domestic EU demand remained largely steady, an increase in international demand during 2025 could not offset the growing supply levels, leading to an oversupplied EU market with a weak market tone for the majority of H2 2025.
Moving into 2026, the supply side has stabilized slightly, while product availability remains elevated compared to the previous year. According to industry sources, a large Algerian milk powder tender was reported during January 2026, generating some relief for the overall stock situation. Additionally, the strong price decrease during H2 2025 led to competitive EU price levels on the global market, adding further buying interest across Southeast Asia.
Like the international market, domestic buyers were also reported as more active during the first couple of weeks of 2026, looking to secure supply for Q2 and Q3.
Vanilla Prices
The EBP of Madagascan vanilla, which is typically used as flavoring in chocolate, fell by 26% in the twelve months through November 2025, to $51/kg (gourmet vanilla, fob Madagascar).
Madagascar's new export campaign reopened during November 2025 following delays caused by a military coup. In mid-October, former president Andry Rajoelina fled the country during a military coup and Michael Randrianirina was sworn in as new president. The new government has dissolved the Conseil National de la Vanille (CNV) and removed the vanilla export tax of $4/kg.
The market continues to be pressured by oversupply and heavy stocks in destination markets, with prices for the gourmet grade hitting their lowest since April 2013.
Strawberry Prices
The price for Spanish strawberries stood at €7.33/kg in January 2026, down by 9.3% MOM but up by 7.9% YOY. The 2025/26 harvest in Huelva, Spain’s main strawberry-producing region, has begun with adverse weather conditions since mid-December weighing on production levels.
The Andalusian Regional Government's Price and Market Observatory reports that heavy rains, below-average temperatures, and overcast conditions are slowing the ripening process. As a result, production levels so far this year are below expectations, and prices are elevated compared with the five-year average.
European strawberry consumption is supported by an increasing number of health-conscious consumers, as well as a preference for convenience.
In addition, locally produced strawberries are preferred by European buyers, with taste and seasonality key factors that drive purchasing decisions, as well as a strong reputation within the market, according to industry reports.
No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available to recipients or viewers of this content or associated documentation by Expana or its affiliates (“Expana”) otherwise constitutes or is to be taken as constituting, the giving of investment advice or an inducement to invest or purchase by Expana to any person, organisation or entity. Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this content. Any statement, observation, trend, price or otherwise presented herein is purely for discursive purposes only, is made on an “as-is” basis with no representation, warranty or otherwise. Any and all such content made available to you is open to interpretation and typographical error and Expana is not responsible for the accuracy of such content. To the maximum extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability to any recipient or viewer of this content or any other person or party for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. By viewing or using this content and/or subscribing to receive any associated documentation or further materials from us, you acknowledge and agree to the terms above.