Price Forecast Insights
In 2024, Expana’s Forecasting division solidified its reputation as the industry leader in delivering forward-looking insights that empower businesses to stay ahead of the curve. By integrating a robust methodology combining macroeconomic analysis, fundamental market trends, and technical indicators, our forecasts offer an unparalleled view into future market dynamics. Whether anticipating seasonal price trends, evaluating supply chain risks, or strategizing for macroeconomic shifts, Expana equips our customers with the tools they need to make confident, data-driven decisions.
[1067] Beef Trimmings 90% US EBP
The price of beef trimmings 90% has recently stabilized between 3.20-3.30 USD/lb after dropping until November but remains in a downtrend. However, prices are expected to rise to between 3.70-4.20 USD/lb during Q1 2025.
This anticipated increase aligns with the usual seasonal pattern of a rise from the November low and is supported by USDA estimates of declining inventories in 2024 and 2025, which will exert upward pressure on prices.
The supply/demand balance has been decreasing since January 2023, and this trend is expected to continue, further contributing to the upward pressure on prices.
Overall, there are multiple indicators that suggests that the price of beef trimmings 90% is likely to increase in the near future.
“Overall, there are multiple indicators that suggests that the price of beef trimmings 90% is likely to increase in the near future.”
[3793] Pork Trimmings - 72% Trim Combo - (TL) US EBP
The price of US pork trimmings 72% is in a downtrend, after crossing below the short-term moving average. Currently, the price is USD 0.83/lb, which is lower than our models suggests it ought to be. For that reason, we are expecting to see an increase to 0.95-1.15 USD/lb by late Q1 2025. Profits are currently in the upper part of normal, but our models suggest that feeding costs will rise in spring 2025, putting at least a weak upward pressure on pork trimming. Though the price of pork trimmings 72% is highly volatile, seasonally, the price tends to increase from December to a peak in July.
Profits are currently in the upper part of normal, but our models suggest that feeding costs will rise in spring 2025, putting at least a weak upward pressure on pork trimming. Though the price of pork trimmings 72% is highly volatile, seasonally, the price tends to increase from December to a peak in July.
“Though the price of pork trimmings 72% is highly volatile, seasonally, the price tends to increase from December to a peak in July.”
[1050] Turkey - Breast, Young Tom, Boneless & Skinless, Fresh US EBP
The price of US-Turkey Breasts has decreased significantly from 6.70 USD/lb in early 2023 to a trough of 1.93 USD/lb in late 2024.
Our analysis in Q3 of 2024 foresaw a potential price increase into Q1 of 2025. This foresight has now materialized, with pricing increasing from 1.93 USD/lb to 2.15 USD/lb in the latest price release. Several fundamental factors are currently exerting upward pricing pressures and being aware of these can help market participants prepare for potential price increases in the near term.
In June 2024, the turkey industry faced a significant challenge with a historic low in the number of eggs in incubators, which also affected the number of 'poults hatched.' This decline is a key factor that could lead to price increases, as it directly influences the future supply and demand balance.
The balance of supply and demand, along with declining consumption-adjusted inventories, are significant factors that could lead to upward pricing pressures. Understanding these factors is crucial, as pricing can take time to react to these fundamental upward pressures. Market participants must be prepared for potential price increases in the near term.
A hedging recommendation was provided in Q4 of 2024 to protect market participants from the current increase in current pricing.
“Market participants must be prepared for potential price increases in the near term.”
[176] Shrimp, Latin America, White EBPUS
During 2024, the Latin American shrimp price increased 26% to $3.6/lb, reaching its highest level since 2022. This happened despite weaker import demand from China. Our analysis indicates that the upside potential is limited, and the price will drop to around $3/lb by late 2025.
However, it is possible the price could find additional support from ongoing blackouts causing logistical problems at origin in Ecuador.
There is also a risk of further price increases due to the emergence of La Niña, which could adversely affect farms in the coming months. La Niña will result in lower-than-average sea temperatures in the Pacific, negatively impacting shrimp growth and creating conditions for viruses to develop.
“Though we expect price decreases during 2025, there is still a risk of further price increases due to the emergence of La Niña, which could adversely affect production in the coming months.”
[6511] Farmed Fresh Chilean Salmon (FOB Miami) EBP
The price of Chilean salmon rose by more than 15% during Q4-24 to 6.2 USD/lb. This development aligns with our forecast of a temporary price recovery, reaching a level between 6.2 and 7 USD/lb in Q1-25. Seasonal demand towards the end of the year, combined with a slight drop in Chilean salmon supply since August 2024, has supported the price increase seen in late 2024.
The fundamentals and technical analysis, however, warn that the price could be approaching a peak. Therefore, further increases are expected to be minimal now as prices are above the fair value range, and technical analysis shows divergences in the RSI, suggesting a possible approaching peak.
Prices are expected to drop following a Q1-25 peak, driven by a potential slowdown in demand as Chilean salmon prices are at historically high levels compared to Norwegian salmon. This decline is expected to be temporary before further strength is seen, as the market remains in an uptrend, making the price decline only a temporary price fluctuation.
“Prices are expected to drop following a Q1-25 peak, driven by a potential slowdown in demand”
[8G39] Extra Virgin Olive Oil Andalucia ES EBP
The price of olive oil has experienced significant volatility in recent years, with sharp increases in 2022 and 2023, followed by a 50% decline in 2024. The seasonality analysis indicates that prices tend to decline from a Q3 peak, towards a Q1 low. This has played out (shown by the price decline from Target 5 to Target 6). There have been improvements in the outlook for good quality olive oil for the 2025 season. The supply/demand balance has been improving since 2023 and a supply surplus is forecasted for 2025, which applies a downward pressure on prices. The overall pressure therefore remains to the downside.
Long-term technical charts indicate a relatively early-stage downtrend, suggesting lower prices over the coming years. Despite this, a small price rally is expected in Q2 2025, with prices expected to reach 5.7-6.9 EUR/kg. However, this increase is likely to be temporary and should not significantly impact the long-term downtrend. There may be an opportunity to hedge this increase if we see the right signals.
“A small price rally is expected in Q2 2025, with prices expected to reach 5.7-6.9 EUR/kg.”
[PA06] Kraftliner Packaging Paper US
The price of kraftliner increased by 10% from the start of 2024 until August, but has remained unchanged at 0.43 USD/lb since then. Despite this sideways price movement, several factors indicate a downward pressure on prices.
Though profit levels are currently low, the production costs have been declining since July, primarily due to falling pulp prices, and are expected to eventually exert more downward pressure. Consequently, prices have likely peaked, and the market is moving sideways until sufficient downward pressure triggers a decline, which we expect for spring 2025 to a target price level around 0.40 USD/lb. This drop is also supported by the seasonality analysis which suggests a downward price pressure from December to May.
The US paperboard mills' inventory/shipments ratio has been on an uptrend since April 2024, with inventories reaching new highs, generally providing downward price pressure. However, the correlation between inventories and prices for kraftliner is not always straightforward. Additionally, US kraftliner prices are currently higher than EU prices, which have recently dropped, exerting a limited downward drag on US prices due to the low profit margin.
“This drop is also supported by the seasonality analysis which suggests a downward price pressure from December to May.”
[2O89] PET (Polyethylene terephthalate) US
PET US prices are currently in a confirmed downtrend, with further declines expected to reach a Q1 low between 50-60 US c/lb. Decreasing production costs and a weak macroeconomic outlook in the second half of the year are anticipated to weigh on prices, both factors having a strong correlation with price and painting a bearish picture through much of 2025.
Declining input costs, particularly due to a decrease in PTA costs in November, are expected to compound the downward pressure on prices. Despite this decline, costs remain high compared to historical standards, resulting in low and unsustainable gross profit levels. This situation calls for either a further decrease in costs or an increase in price levels, with our expectation leaning towards the former.
Seasonality may provide some support for prices towards the end of Q1 if typical trends hold, potentially capping some of the downward pressure in the short term. In summary, the weak macroeconomic outlook and decreasing input costs are expected to result in overall price decreases throughout most of 2025.
“the weak macroeconomic outlook and decreasing input costs are expected to result in overall price decreases throughout most of 2025”
[EE07] China – East Coast US Shipping
Container rates have been highly volatile in recent years, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025. The industry continues to struggle with additional challenges, exacerbating the already problematic trading environment. This includes the persistent Red Sea attacks by the Houthi Militants, which have led to increased insurance costs and rerouting of ships, and the recently avoided industrial action between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which could have disrupted port operations and led to delays in shipments.
Further considerations must include the long-term impact of introducing “tariffs” between the United States and China.
While introducing tariffs could increase import costs and shipping costs, careful planning and accurate forecasting can help mitigate these effects. Uncertainty surrounding trade policies can also produce increased volatility within container rates, further disrupting the smooth operation of global supply chains.
It is of utmost importance to include the high tendency of seasonality within market forecasting. Seasonality significantly influences the price index, traditionally exerting downward pressure until the subsequent seasonal increase in Q1. By diligently factoring in seasonality considerations, we can ensure our analysis is comprehensive and accurate.
Global political tensions and economic factors remain pivotal in the current market dynamics of the container transport market. The combination of capacity strains and geopolitical issues will continue to influence container rates, leading to significant fluctuations throughout the year.
“The combination of capacity strains and geopolitical issues will continue to influence container rates, leading to significant fluctuations throughout the year.”