US Valentine’s Day Meal Index
Expana’s US Valentine’s Meal Index consists of beef tenderloin, lobster tail, and potatoes.
The index fell by 7.8 % YOY and 10.4% MOM, driven by lower lobster tail and potato prices.
Lobster Tail
As Valentine’s Day approaches, the frozen North American lobster tail market (5–6 oz, EBP) enters 2026 on softer footing. The year-to-date average price hovers around $19.50 per pound—down roughly 18% from the same period last year and well below the five-year seasonal average.
This downward pressure originated in late Q3 and Q4 of 2025, when ample inventories coincided with weaker-than-expected end-of-year demand. Despite hopes that holiday buying would absorb the surplus, a late flurry fell somewhat short, leaving a modest inventory overhang.
By January, the market showed signs of stabilization. Buyer inquiries gained momentum, inventories tightened, and the undertone firmed ahead of the spring Canadian season, suggesting a more balanced environment for the upcoming raw material cycle.
Raw material procurement remains the key driver for frozen tail prices, with purchasing concentrated around the Canadian spring fishery and the Maine summer–fall season. The Spring fishery typically sets the cost baseline for tail inventories throughout the year, as processors capitalize on improved hard-shell availability and favorable tail yields.
In 2025, this window unfolded under a transformed trade landscape after a 25% retaliatory tariff on Canadian lobster imports to China took effect on March 20, reshaping global flows. While this tariff benefited US processors by increasing supply, it also contributed to heavier year-end inventories amid softened demand. This weakness extended beyond frozen tails, impacting the live lobster market as well.
Although Maine’s catches declined year-over-year, a prolonged late-fall fishing season allowed the frozen sector to further build inventories, placing additional downward pressure on tail prices in the latter half of 2025.
At this stage of the season, the opportunity to process raw material at acceptable cost levels has passed, with both the Canadian spring and Maine fall procurement periods now concluded. As a result, inventory positions are fixed and increasingly finite, leaving limited flexibility to respond to incremental demand.
With no near-term opportunity to add raw material, pricing through the Valentine’s period is being dictated by existing inventories rather than active production, reinforcing a defined and relatively stable market structure.
Beef Tenderloin
As February approaches and Valentine's Day nears, beef prices are displaying levels above those of 2025, though they remain slightly shy of 2024 prices. For the Choice beef tenderloin EBP, prices are about 11.1% higher YOY and down about 19.1% MOM. Some buyers are continuing to purchase this item, while others have shifted their attention to the loin complex, turning to strips and top butts as more affordable alternatives. On average, prices are 3.1% below 2024 values.
Current levels are falling more in line with the three-year average but outpacing the five-year average, largely due to much lower prices experienced in 2021, which trail current values by approximately 35%. Although tenderloins experience fair to moderate buying interest around this time of year, prices historically don't reach their annual highs until around November due to end-of-year holiday procurement, when consumers are more likely to splurge on higher-priced cuts. Foodservice purchasing for Valentine's Day has largely wrapped up and is now focusing on inventory replenishment.
Potato
The price for US Potatoes decreased by 12.4% YOY to $0.43/lb in January 2026. The USDA’s Crop Production 2025 summary, released in January, reports that US potato production in 2025 is estimated at 413 million cwt, down 2% from the 2024 crop. The year-over-year decline is largely attributed to a reduction in acreage, with planted area falling 3% to 902,000 acres. Harvested acreage also declined 3% from the previous year, totaling 896,800 acres.
Despite the smaller harvested footprint, yields improved as growing conditions supported stronger output per acre. The national average yield increased to 460 cwt per acre, up 6 cwt from 2024, helping to partially offset the impact of reduced planted and harvested area.
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