2026 Shrimp Outlook
Commentary by Fabienne O'Donoghue
Q4 typically sees increased shrimp consumption in western markets due to the festive season.
However, import demand tends to slow in the US and Europe, as freezers are stocked, and processors complete final deliveries to the foodservice and retail sectors.
Amid this softer undertone on a global scale, a key factor shaping Q4 dynamics is the volume absorbed by China as it prepares for the Lunar New Year holiday in February.
This demand will heavily influence vannamei pricing from Ecuador. Currently, Chinese purchasing remains steady, but uncertainties persist over quantities needed for February and March, given existing inventory levels.
Another significant factor is a possible change of the US tariffs on India and Ecuador, which are the primary shrimp suppliers to China, the US, and the EU. This adjustment will directly affect pricing and impact seeding volumes planned for the 2026 spring season in Asia.
In addition to any reduction in US tariffs on India and Ecuador, another main driver for Q1 will be the volume of inventory left in western markets after the December holidays and China’s absorption in Q4.
With the US heavily frontloading last spring and EU/UK imports up 6.8% YOY in January-September 2025, the start of the new year will be shaped by replacement needs versus available supply. Ecuador’s vannamei production remains steady, while India and Vietnam will face reduced raw material availability with the fall harvest now in the rearview.
In early Q4, vannamei prices held relatively stable, though November typically sees softer levels, with values leaning toward the lower end of our ranges.
CFR 40–50 HOSO prices into the EU are currently about 10% below the five‑year average, and October recorded the second‑lowest monthly average in that period. This price environment explains the ongoing push from exporters to secure higher values on new offers.
However, Q4 demand is not keeping pace, and buyer resistance is resulting in a steady, and at times declining, trend. With Easter happening at the beginning of April 2026 and a recovery in tourism expected in May, Q1 will also encompass spring shipments, which could lift demand and firm up prices, especially given the shorter raw‑material supply from Asia during that quarter
Shrimp Forecast
Commentary by Craig Erlam
Prices have likely peaked in Q4, after tariffs increased them this year to levels that will be difficult to sustain in a soft-demand environment. Recent price declines have varied by origin (and its respective tariff rate) and product form.
But we expect prices overall will remain elevated in the early part of next year, aided by favorable seasonal trends until early Spring and higher costs.
Technical indicators vary depending on product form, but there are signs that uptrends are weakening or even, in some cases, reversing.
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