Shipping Price Trends
Shipping
Price movements
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EU
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Key Takeaways
- The average price of Index Shipping 40ft increased by 10.7% MOM and declined by 8.7% YOY to $2,133.04/unit in March.
- The Middle East conflict stood as the primary watch-out factor for shipping market participants throughout March, as logistical disruption in the Gulf and increasing oil prices stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns.
- On the back of an increase in the cost of bunker fuel, and carriers’ announcements of emergency fuel surcharges, prices firmed over the month. However, market players suggest that the increase has not been as dramatic as some might have expected, partly owing to a seasonal drop in demand.
- In addition, disruption to shipping has largely been restricted to the region and the broader market has remained largely unaffected, and capacity is robust. Uncertainty around the Middle East turmoil persists, and some market sources suggest that further firming of prices is possible.
Shipping
Price forecast
US-EU
Container rates began increasing again late in Q1, reaching a three-year high in the process. The low came a little earlier than normal for this time of year, likely due to the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting surge in bunker fuel prices.
The conflict will keep rates elevated through the remainder of the second quarter, with seasonal trends adding additional upward pressure during that time.
What’s more, the Global Container Throughput Index – a measure of container handling activity - spiked at the end of last year and continued higher in January, indicating strong demand. The North European index has also been trending higher over the last couple of years, as have North America-Europe shipping volumes, coinciding with the increase in US-EU container rates during that time.
The economy could continue to support higher activity and therefore container rates over the next couple of months, with the Global PMI having moved back into growth territory in August and remaining there since.
From a technical perspective, the rate moved above its moving average at the end of March, indicating a continuation of the short-term uptrend that started in October, as the MACD was still above its dotted signal line. This should support further rate increases in Q2 2026.
China-US
The second quarter of 2026 was already expected to bring higher rates for the CN- East Coast US route, with seasonal patterns typically favouring an increase from the end of Q1, and events in the Middle East will likely now add to that.
We typically see a seasonal low in CN-US container rates around March, followed by an increase in the second quarter. While events can sometimes complicate seasonal patterns, the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on bunker fuel prices will likely contribute to the increase we already expected in Q2.
The regression model indicates rates are reasonable at the current levels, based on the fundamentals. That said, there is still scope for increases within the estimated range, which had been trending lower prior to the conflict.
Activity, as measured by the global container throughput index, ended 2025 strongly and has continued to increase at the start of the year. This has been a good leading indicator for CN-US rates over the years. As has the SCFI Composite, which has been increasing sharply since February.
Technical analysis also supports further increases, with the short-term chart entering an uptrend in recent weeks. This is further supported by the RSI, which has surpassed recent peaks during the process.
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