Sugar Price Trends
Sugar
Price movements
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ICE #11 FUTURES PRICES (MAY ‘26)
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Key Takeaways
- World sugar prices found support from the Middle East conflict in March, with the front-month raw sugar contract breaking out of February’s USc 14.00–15.00/lb range and testing the USc 16.00/lb level by the end of the month.
- Rising global oil prices resulting from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have significantly affected sugar price dynamics by increasing production and logistics costs, and by reinforcing expectations of a domestic gasoline price increase in Brazil, which would support the ethanol parity in the country.
- The current outlook is one of uncertainty. While the Middle East conflict continues longer than expected, prices remain firm and the market is closely monitoring every new development. However, once (and if) geopolitical tensions ease, there appears to be no fundamental factor to support current price levels.
Raw and White Sugar Futures Prices
- Support for global sugar prices in March stemmed primarily from the conflict in the Middle East and climbing oil prices. Front-month ICE #11 raw sugar futures increased by 8.5% m-o-m, ending the month at 15.52 USc/lb (as of March 31).
- The second-month contract (Jul 26 ICE #11) showed an even stronger m-o-m increase of 12.9% as of the time of publication at 15.68 USc/lb. Consequently, the Mar-May 26 calendar spread has weakened to a 16-point discount.
- The May 26 ICE #5 (London) white sugar contract ended 10.0% higher m-o-m at $448.5/mt, resulting in a “white premium” (refiners’ margin) of $106.34/mt (May/May basis).
Market Sentiment
- The Middle East conflict has significantly impacted oil prices, and sugar has partly followed this trend due to higher logistic costs and expectations that Brazilian mills may divert more sugarcane toward ethanol production.
- From a purely fundamental perspective, the Production-Consumption surplus for the 2025/26 marketing year (Oct-Sep basis) has widened, with stronger-than-expected late-season output from Thailand and Pakistan. In other words, the global market would remain well-supplied even if CS Brazil mills were to reduce sugar production by 1-2M MT y-o-y in the coming season.
Sugar
Price drivers
Energy Prices
The conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have had a substantial impact on energy markets, driving front‑month Brent crude prices close to four‑year highs and hovering near USD 110/bbl toward the end of the month.
As oil prices have risen, gasoline import parity in Brazil has reflected a materially negative margin of around 60% for more than two weeks. In theory, conditions for Petrobras to increase domestic gasoline prices have therefore been met, yet the company has so far refrained from taking action.
Despite the lack of an official price adjustment, independent fuel importers are pushing average gasoline prices higher, and prices paid by final consumers have already increased significantly. This development should provide support to Brazil’s ethanol price outlook.
INR/USD
The Indian Rupee depreciated to a fresh record low of INR 94.0 per USD in late March.
Combined with the sharp increase in global sugar prices, the weaker Rupee has significantly enhanced India’s export competitiveness.
Despite projected tight stocks at the end of the 2025/26 crop year (Oct-Sep basis), new sugar export contracts have been signed in recent weeks. As a result, market participants have revised their estimates of total Indian domestic sugar exports in 2025/26 closer to 1M MT WV – a quantity that could increase further if current global price and domestic currency dynamics persist.
Sugar
Supply
CS Brazil – Sugar & Ethanol Outlook: 2026/27 Season
Total rainfall in March exceeded the five-year average, improving cane growth conditions — most millers expect higher y-o-y cane availability.
Wet weather has delayed early mill start-ups due to harvest difficulties and low sucrose content; most mills still expected to begin operations in April.
Sugarcane crush estimates revised up to 620–640M MT (Expana: 637M MT).
High international oil prices have pushed gasoline import parity to unfavourable counter-margins of ~-60%; Petrobras has yet to adjust domestic prices.
Gasoline prices at São Paulo fuel stations rose 30% in March, as independent importers pass higher logistics costs to consumers.
Ethanol prices are supported by the Middle East conflict, low inventories, and strong domestic fuel demand — giving it an initial edge over sugar.
Rising global sugar prices have narrowed the sugar-ethanol profitability gap; sugar expected to become more profitable from June onward.
CS Brazil has industrial flexibility to produce 37–43M MT of sugar depending on domestic ethanol absorption — mills' production strategies should become clearer in late April.
EU & UK – Sugar Outlook: 2025/26 & 2026/27 Season
Expana estimates EU-27 2025/26 sugar production at 15.5M MT WV, down 2% y-o-y on a 10% fall in harvested area, partially offset by a 9% rise in sugar yield.
Expana forecasts EU-27 2026/27 production at 13.2M MT WV, a 15% y-o-y reduction, driven by a 9% decline in harvested area and a projected 6% drop in average sugar yield as exceptionally high 2025/26 yields are not expected to repeat.
UK producer British Sugar produced ~1M MT in 2025/26, down from 1.1M MT the prior season.
Rothamsted Research warns that ~60% of the UK beet crop could be infected with Virus Yellows in 2026/27, due to warmer-than-average January–February temperatures increasing aphid pressure.
Northern France received 80% more rainfall than usual in February, raising the risk of operational delays and disrupted crop establishment.
Nordzucker's Finnish subsidiary has decided to halt raw sugar refining at its Porkkala site; its Säkylä beet processing facility is unaffected.
The European Commission is reportedly planning a one-year suspension of the duty-free Inward Processing Relief (IPR) scheme; 587K MT of raw sugar was imported under IPR in 2024/25, 95% sourced from Brazil.
The EU-Mercosur FTA will be provisionally applied from May 1, following the Parliament's referral to the Court of Justice; France and Poland continue to oppose the deal despite MEP-backed safeguards for sensitive agricultural products including sugar.
India – Sugar Outlook: 2025/26 Season
Crushing nearing completion; most mills in Karnataka and Maharashtra have stopped, with only a few still active in Uttar Pradesh.
Expana estimates India's 2025/26 sugar production at 28.5M MT WV.
Rising global sugar prices and Rupee depreciation have improved export competitiveness; ~600K MT TQ contracted this season, 315K MT TQ exported to date.
Expana projects total 2025/26 exports at 850K MT TQ, with export parity currently open.
Cumulative monthly sales quotas (Oct–Apr) were 500K MT TQ lower y-o-y, weighing on domestic consumption — forecast at 27.6M MT WV, down 400K MT WV from last year.
Despite rising exports, lower domestic consumption keeps ending stocks at ~5.3M MT WV — equivalent to roughly two months of supply.
El Niño probability has strengthened per NOAA; IMD's 2026 Southwest Monsoon forecast (due early April) will be key for the 2026/27 production outlook.
June monsoon onset will be a critical driver of Government of India policy decisions on ethanol allocation and sugar exports in 2026/27.
Sugar
Price forecast
Sugar (Global)
The global sugar market has been though a tumultuous period with large price swings. The war in the gulf region and the disruption of ocean traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has sent crude oil prices soaring, which pushed raw sugar cane futures prices higher through March, as the market anticipated that a larger share of sugar cane would be directed towards ethanol production.
In April, prices resumed the long-term downtrend and posted a 5.5-year low on the ICE US futures market, pressured by weakening crude oil prices as well as the underlying supply and demand fundamentals, which remain overall bearish for this year.
We anticipated a pullback in Q2 and the possibility of a new low; however, we expect prices to turn higher again later this quarter, as our regression model indicates that Sugar #11 is currently below the estimated price range. As such, the price is in an anti-bubble from a model perspective, and the market should eventually correct itself.
From a technical perspective, the downside potential also looks limited, with bullish divergences present on the weekly and monthly charts. Sugar #11 reached technically oversold territory on the monthly chart already back in June 2025, meaning technical support has been building for a long time; however, the downtrend is considered intact as long as the price continues falling to lower lows.
There are two unknowns looking ahead: the war in Iran and the return of El Niño. The trade disruption is driving up fertiliser prices, and an escalation of tensions could fuel another rally in crude oil prices, which would also be supportive for sugar cane prices. On the other hand, regional demand destruction will take place as long as the strait remains blocked. El Niño is likely to emerge in the second half of Q2 and is expected to last, at least, until the end of 2026. This phenomenon may bring lower monsoon rainfall to key producers in Asia, therefore posing a potential supply risk. Still, the effect is yet unknown, and even if it turns supportive for prices, the effect will likely not be observable in Q2.
Sugar EU
EU sugar prices are rising, and momentum appears to be building. However, it is not yet clear whether this upswing is sustainable in the medium term. The price has crossed its moving average on the weekly technical chart - a move supported by the RSI which has entered bullish territory - but confirmation is missing from the MACD. This may be a period of transition for the market, but without confirmation, we cannot rule out the possibility of another dip.
Fundamentally, there are both bullish and bearish factors at play. EU inventories this year, as reported by the European Commission, are at the second-highest level recorded for February since reporting started in the 2017/2018 marketing year. This limits the scope for a recovery in the EU sugar market. Moreover, global sugar prices are once again facing downward pressure from strong cane sugar availability and weak demand, creating a bearish backdrop for EU sugar prices.
Still, the market also looks constrained on the downside following years of falling prices. The low-price environment has hit the profit margins of European sugar groups, and an Expana profit calculation shows that sugar producers’ theoretical gross profit is near record lows.
The low-price environment resulted in an acreage reduction of 8% in the 2025/2026 marketing year, and further reductions are expected for the next marketing year. This could support EU prices in the longer run; however, weak internal demand and free-trade agreements such as Mercosur threaten a substantial recovery.
We project a continued recovery in EU sugar prices in the near term, followed by stabilisation in late Q2 2026.
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