Softs
Coffee
Coffee
Price movements (monthly)
Ice Ny Futures Prices (M0)
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Ice London Futures Prices (M0)
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
The NY “C” futures front month contract eased in the first week of April as rains and updated crop forecasts provided some relief for balance sheets.
However, following President Trump’s swingeing tariff announcements, the USD/BRL exchange rate started to weaken dramatically. After closing at 342.85 c/lb on the spot contract on 10 April – the lowest level since January – the spot price climbed back to 421.55 c/lb on Monday, 28 April.
On 17 April, the European Commission announced clarifications for the traceability and documentation required to demonstrate EUDR compliance. According to the EC, the proposed changes should remove “30%” from the costs of compliance.
The London Robusta front month futures fell in early April, reaching their lowest levels since January and dipping below $4,800/mt. However, following arabica’s upturn and a weaker USD, prices recovered to trade in the $5,200-5,300/mt for the rest of the month.
Rains in Vietnam are around average for this time of year, and apart from some sporadic dryness in parts, a few contacts told Expana that this should bode well for development of Vietnam’s next crop which harvests later this year.
Most forecasts for conilon production in Brazil that were shared with Expana average around the 22m bag range, average compared to the last three years.
Coffee
Other price drivers
Certified stocks
According to the ICE certified stocks report from 30 April, stocks in certified warehouses ticked higher throughout April, registering 813,668 bags by the end of the month, an increase of 5.6% on the month. This includes some 61,000 bags currently sitting in US warehouses. Around half of all bags are from Brazil, with commercial grades from Honduras and Peru also accounting for sizeable portions of that inventory as some of those grades have reached tenderable parity in Q1. There are currently over 84,000 bags pending grading, primarily in Antwerp.
This represents the highest level in certified stocks since mid-January, and the strongest end to April since 2022, as Brazil continues to record strong export figures.
Differentials
Despite the steep gains made by futures prices throughout the month of April, coffee differentials from most origins saw very little change. Market participants told Expana that exporters are looking to capitalise on any buying before the temporary moratorium on tariffs greater than 10% kick in in July. However, the same sources noted generally subdued trading conditions throughout the month. The Expana Benchmark Prices for Colombian Excelso EP FOB [Expana Code: CDC1] ticked up 2 cents on the month, while most other Latin American origins were unchanged.
With London robusta futures also making gains, the EBP for Vietnamese Robusta 5% black & broken GC FOB Vietnam [Expana Code: CDV1] also rose from -$205/mt at the end of March to -$160/mt as Expana heard that there was some slight trade at the end of the export season, but that Vietnam is now largely sold on its previous crop. Indications heard as of the publication date suggest that offer pricing may now be moving lower again.
Speculative Positions
In NY, the net managed money (speculator) long position dropped sharply at the beginning of April, falling from 55,702 lots to just 36,932 lots as of the most recent report. This was driven entirely by profit taking and a reduction in the outright long position, as shorts saw very limited activity. Additionally, the producer net short position dropped sharply as well. With slow physical trade reported by market participants, this was the result of new producer longs coming in to hedge future purchases, according to some sources. In London, managed money funds continued to trim their net long position up through the most recent report, driven almost entirely by profit taking. The managed money net position fell from 27,566 lots at the end of March to just 12,338 lots as of the most recent report. On the producer side, a huge trimming of the net short position was observed in the middle of the month, driven by new producer longs hedging their open positions and thus providing some price support. Open interest continues to dwindle to levels last seen in mid-January despite the new producer longs.
Currency
The USD/BRL rate spiked in early April before falling sharply on widespread US dollar weakness against most other currency pairs, as discussed in the market sentiment slide on page 4. This provided bullish momentum for coffee futures prices.
Coffee
Market sentiment for the month ahead
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