Beef Price Trends
Beef
Price movements
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Cattle steer ddwt R3 mp EU
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USDA Five Area Direct Cattle, Live Steer Price
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114A 3 Chuck, Shoulder Clod, Roast Choice (TL)
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189A 4 Loin, Beef Tenderloin, PSMO, Defat Up..
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UB Imported Beef Brazil EC 61-120 95% Boneless..
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US Weekly Beef Market Insights:
- Boxed beef market: Overall tones shifting from steady to barely steady across most segments this week.
- Growing inventories led to increased seller discounts. Slaughter level currently tracks about 15% below 2025 levels. Both end cuts and some middle meats have come under pressure, due to low demand and many market participants waiting for clearer price direction before re-entering.
- The week did see active trade volumes, particularly in items such as bone-in ribs, end cuts, and short loins, albeit at lower price levels.
- Broader market uncertainty is also influencing sentiment. Ongoing labor disruptions, Middle East geopolitical conflict, the Easter holiday, and the typical slowdown during the “week of the 2s” are contributing to a more cautious tone.
- Additionally, drought conditions and wildfire risks are keeping attention on potential volatility in input costs as the Midwest moves deeper into the corn growing season.
Cuts:
- Ribs: Buyer behavior remained mixed, with many continuing a hand-to-mouth purchasing approach. However, some value-driven buying emerged later in the week particularly on bone-in product, as discounting created short-term opportunities. Grilling season demand has yet to fully materialize, and overall tone remains cautious. Many buyers are holding off on forward purchases, waiting to see if prices soften further before stepping in to cover upcoming needs.
- Loins: Even with warmer weather on the horizon, procurement for the Easter holiday was largely completed, dampening already fair at best demand. Over the week, buying interest turned duller and inventories that were reportedly short over the past couple of weeks began to see improved availability. Xt top butts experienced their first price decline when looking at the weekly average for the year, while 0x1 strips, although slowed in their incline, continued to increase on average this week.
- Chucks: The chuck complex experienced softening as it encountered fading demand, pushing chuck roll prices below the $500/cwt mark for the second time. The previous occurrence took place in February, historically the slowest month for beef demand. Shoulder clods encountered slight discounting but remain holding a significant premium over all previous years for this period, roughly 30% on a weekly average basis.
- Ground beef: Despite the recent price pressure, values across the complex remain well above year-ago levels, which has kept buyers cautious about taking on sizable positions. Demand has yet to show a meaningful turnaround for grilling season.
- Boneless beef: Fresh 85s experienced slight discounts on Monday but prices trended higher for the remainder of the week. Fresh 50s were generally firmer this week. Most packers indicated that they were comfortable with their current inventory positions and held firm on their asking prices.
Beef
Price forecast
UB 114A 3 Chuck, Shoulder Clod, Roast Choice-(TL) EBP
- The price of Chuck followed our forecast in 2025. Trends and duration were accurate across all targets. In the most part, so was amplitude, apart from the uptrend that took us from the Q1 low to the mid-year top, where the price rose slightly further than anticipated. Nevertheless, the impulsive rise to the price peak was covered by two hedges, recommended early in 2025. Both were beneficial.
- After the summer peak, the price continued to follow the forecast and fell to a Q4 low. During this, the hedging recommendation was set to Avoid.
- No hedging was recommended during the downtrend from the top to the low, providing benefit as the price low had not been achieved and the risk to the downside was apparent.
- In late December 2025, the price rose, and the signal to initiate hedging was received. A partial hedge was recommended and has been beneficial so far.
- The price is nearing the Q1 top and a decline in prices is expected to take place going into Q2 2026. This will present another opportunity to place more volumes.
Beef Trimmings, 50% Fresh Chemical Lean FOB River-(TL) EBP
- In 2025 Beef trimmings 50% followed our targets, where we expected a period of sideways movement before a price increase in the summer period. After the increase into summer, a fall in price to the end of the year was forecasted. The uptrend to the summer top rose further than we had anticipated, rising to historically high levels and forming a large bubble above the regression fair band, indicating the price was too high in accordance with the overall fundamental outlook. The target amplitude may not have been 100% accurate, but the trend direction and duration of the upward price move were. Additionally, the volatile price move was covered by 3 separate hedges we had recommended in late 2024/early 2025. After the summer top the price fell, as all price bubbles do, to a Q4 low.
- In November 2025, the price rose once more, and the signals to initiate partial hedging were received. A partial hedge covering from the start of November 2025 to the end of April 2026 was recommended. Benefits were seen at the start of the hedge, but at the start of December 2025 the price of 50% fell. After a month of decline, the price has shown upside strength and the risk to the upside is growing. The November hedge may not have been beneficial in December, but it will still bring savings in 2026.
- A hedging opportunity arose in January 2026, and it has been beneficial so far. The price is rising, due to the seasonal demand heading into summer. Record low supply of beef in the US poses more upside risk.
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