Beef
Beef
Price movements
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Cattle steer ddwt R3 mp EU
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
USDA Five Area Direct Cattle, Live Steer Price
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
114A 3 Chuck, Shoulder Clod, Roast Choice (TL)
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
189A 4 Loin, Beef Tenderloin, PSMO, Defat Up..
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Imported Beef Brazil EC 61-120 95% Boneless..
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Top 3 Takeaways
- Beef in a broad bull run: All five indicators are positive YoY (+6% to +28%), reflecting tight global cattle supplies from multi-year herd liquidation — a structural story unlikely to reverse quickly.
- Premium cuts soaring: US tenderloin at $15.23/lb (+19.78% YoY) and chuck at $4.33/lb (+28.06% YoY) show strong restaurant and retail demand absorbing constrained supply.
- Aust/NZ gaining share: At $3.86/lb (+21.47% YoY), imported Southern Hemisphere beef is competitive as an affordable alternative to record-high US domestic prices.
US-Iran War Impact
- Higher trucking and energy costs add inflationary pressure at processing and retail level. Middle East beef export markets (Australia and NZ are key Gulf suppliers) face logistical disruption. Long-term, higher feed and energy costs could accelerate further herd contraction globally.
Beef
Price forecast
UB 114A 3 Chuck, Shoulder Clod, Roast Choice-(TL) EBP
- The price of Chuck followed our forecast in 2025. Trends and duration were accurate across all targets. In the most part, so was amplitude, apart from the uptrend that took us from the Q1 low to the mid-year top, where the price rose slightly further than anticipated. Nevertheless, the impulsive rise to the price peak was covered by two hedges, recommended early in 2025. Both were beneficial.
- After the summer peak, the price continued to follow the forecast and fell to a Q4 low. During this, the hedging recommendation was set to Avoid.
- No hedging was recommended during the downtrend from the top to the low, providing benefit as the price low had not been achieved and the risk to the downside was apparent.
- In late December 2025, the price rose, and the signal to initiate hedging was received. A partial hedge was recommended and has been beneficial so far.
- The price is nearing the Q1 top and a decline in prices is expected to take place going into Q2 2026. This will present another opportunity to place more volumes.
Beef Trimmings, 50% Fresh Chemical Lean FOB River-(TL) EBP
- In 2025 Beef trimmings 50% followed our targets, where we expected a period of sideways movement before a price increase in the summer period. After the increase into summer, a fall in price to the end of the year was forecasted. The uptrend to the summer top rose further than we had anticipated, rising to historically high levels and forming a large bubble above the regression fair band, indicating the price was too high in accordance with the overall fundamental outlook. The target amplitude may not have been 100% accurate, but the trend direction and duration of the upward price move were. Additionally, the volatile price move was covered by 3 separate hedges we had recommended in late 2024/early 2025. After the summer top the price fell, as all price bubbles do, to a Q4 low.
- In November 2025, the price rose once more, and the signals to initiate partial hedging were received. A partial hedge covering from the start of November 2025 to the end of April 2026 was recommended. Benefits were seen at the start of the hedge, but at the start of December 2025 the price of 50% fell. After a month of decline, the price has shown upside strength and the risk to the upside is growing. The November hedge may not have been beneficial in December, but it will still bring savings in 2026.
- A hedging opportunity arose in January 2026, and it has been beneficial so far. The price is rising, due to the seasonal demand heading into summer. Record low supply of beef in the US poses more upside risk.
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