Barley
Barley
Price movements (monthly)
Barley France
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Barley Ukraine
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Barley Russia
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Barley Argentina
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- Market players told Expana that upwards price momentum in barley has been primarily due to dry weather conditions across Europe, as well as increased global demand, coupled with tighter ending stocks. Sources also believe that slow selling has added further support to prices in Q2 of 2025.
Barley
Price drivers
↓ Macroeconomic Environment
The Brent crude oil price [Expana code: BCRD] decreased by 0.25% m-o-m in May to $64.09/barrel. Crude oil prices continued to fall throughout May, with market players crediting the fall towards OPEC members raising production quotas, therefore adding supply into the market. Market players continued to say that the surge in supply coincided with escalating trade tensions between the US and China, which ultimately depleted global demand for oil, and added further pressure to prices.
EU gas prices fell by 15.44% m-o-m in May to €35.36/MWh. Sources told Expana that EU gas prices fell in May primarily due to weaker demand and stable supply. Seasonal increases in renewable energy output reduced gas consumption, while industrial demand dropped. Despite slightly lower storage levels compared to last year, supply remained sufficient, easing pressure on the market and pushing prices down.
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite index increased by 1.92% m-o-m to $2,276.33 per unit in May. Year on Year, prices have declined by 44.1%.
Expana learnt from market players that price increases in May are mainly due to a surge in US bound shipments from China following the 90-day tariff suspension/reduction. The spike in demand lent support to prices, according to players.
↑ Fertilizer Cost
NPK Fertilizer [Expana code: 2H45] costs were €524.25/mt as of May 28, 2025, up 1.65% m-o-m and 7.59% year-on-year.
Market players told Expana that the cost of mixed NPK blend fertilizers rose in May, driven by a combination of global supply constraints and rising input costs. Limited export availability from key suppliers such as China and Russia has tightened global supply, while elevated natural gas prices, which are critical for nitrogen-based fertilizer, have pushed up manufacturing costs.
Barley
Price forecast
Barley
Supply and Demand
Australia
Australian farmers began planting the next barley crop in April/May. Regarding the climate, market players are cautiously optimistic, as planting conditions are regionally varied. Sources say that eastern grain belts are mostly adequate in moisture, while parts of western Australia are still awaiting adequate rainfall to germinate crops. The USDA predicts Australian barley production at a total of 12.5 million mt in the 2025/2026 marketing year, a downwards revision from last year’s bumper crop, which exceeded 13.3 million mt.
Ukraine
In the USDA’s recent (May 12) WASDE report, the first production forecast of 2025/2026 shows a downward revision of 100,000 mt year-on-year to a total of 5.7 million mt in the season. Ending stocks also saw a modest reduction of 200,000 mt to 391,000 mt. If realized, this will be the smallest recorded ending stock figure for Ukraine. The harvested area remains the same year-on-year. Market sources told Expana that any continuation of severe dryness could emerge as a key challenge for Barley yield prospects in the 2025/2026 season.
US
The US is forecasted by the USDA to produce 3.2 million mt of barley in the 2025/2026 season. Due to higher profitability in corn, farmers have reduced the planted area for barley by an estimated 273,000 mt. As of May 19, planting is well underway, with 75% planted. This is 3% higher than the five-year average. Market sources are expressing some concern over dryness across the US plains in April, but showers in Montana delivered between 1.2-1.5 inches of rain, alleviating some concerns.
EU
In its first WASDE report of the 2025/2026 season (May 12), the USDA is forecasting total EU barley production at 53 million mt, highlighting an increase compared to 50.3 million in total for 2024/2025, while the harvested area had a small upwards revision of 100,000 hectares to a total of 10.4 million hectares for the 2025/2026 season. With regards to ending stocks, the USDA also made a small upwards revision to match the forecasted harvested area, increasing ending stocks year-on-year by 100,000 mt to a total of 5.7 million mt.
Market players commented that higher yields than last season have driven production increases, but dryness in northern Europe will be a key factor in influencing changes to projected figures in the marketing year. Currently, sources say that Germany and Poland would benefit the most from rains.
Russia
In Russia, market sources are expecting an upswing in barley production in the 2025/2026 season after a comparatively smaller crop (2023/2024). The USDA is forecasting an increase of 1.8 million mt in barley production for the 2025/2026 marketing year, putting the total production figure at 18 million mt. This upwards projection reflects an increased planted area from 6.6 million hectares to 6.9 million hectares. Market players believe that spring weather has mostly been favorable for Russian barley, but recent dryness and frosts have significantly stressed the crop, which could impact current forecasts. Market players are particularly concerned about Krasnodar and Rostov, which account for a combined estimate of 10.3% of national production.
Barley
Market sentiment (for the month ahead)
Tight global stocks
There are some discrepancies among market players regarding forecasts for final ending stocks, with some estimates coming out higher than last year. Sources expect purchasing/tenders throughout the marketing year to dictate the final figure and any price movement that could come as a result.
↓ Increased Global production
Global barley production is forecasted by the USDA to increase by 2.4 million mt to a total of 145.8 million mt in the 2025/2026 season. Market players say that the expected jump in production is due to a rebound from adverse weather conditions in the previous marketing year. Sources stated that better soil moisture in Russia and consistent rainfall in most of Europe (although northern parts are becoming a concern) drove production estimate increases in 2025/2026. Sources say that if trends of increasing production continue, it could weigh on prices.
↑ Dryness in Ukraine
Sources say that between March and June, Ukraine experienced substantial precipitation deficits, with below usual rainfall throughout the period and unexpected frosts in May driving concerns in the market. As a result, the USDA has forecasted a slightly smaller crop in Ukraine (see page 5) . Furthermore, sources believe that China’s demand for Ukrainian barley will increase in the 2025/2026 season, citing purchases of around 500,000 mt (as of May 22). Market participants believe that this could lend some support to prices.
↑ Increased demand
Market players believe that among the top importers, there will be a push to secure supplies in the 2025/2026 season. Industry insiders believe that China are likely to increase purchases to replenish stockpiles, and that this could also be the case for Turkey, as domestic production is expected to decrease and imports are projected from the USDA to increase by up to 850,000 mt in 2025/2026. Market players suggest that this could lend some support to prices, provided that decreased demand from the Middle East, due to higher corn availability for feed as opposed to barley, does not offset potential demand increases from China or Turkey.
↑ World Barley Stocks Lowest since 2005/2006
According to market players, 2024/2025 Global barley stocks are still expected to conclude at their lowest level since 2005/2006. Sources believe that this is due to barley prices remaining competitive throughout the season despite smaller (2024/2025) global harvests. For 2025/2026, ending stocks are projected at the same level amid a slight uptick in production. Market players believe that increases in demand, alongside a tighter balance sheet, could lend support to prices.
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