Corn
Corn
Price movements (monthly)
CBOT Futures Prices
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Euronext Futures Prices
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- The Euronext Paris corn futures price decreased by €1.50/mt month-on-month (m-o-m) to €187.00/mt, while the CBOT corn futures price increased by $7.09/mt to $156.55/mt.
- Market players told Expana that future market prices were weighed down by increasingly optimistic yield prospects in Ukraine following major concerns of drought damage earlier in the season. However, sources expressed concerns about EU yield prospects due to damaging droughts.
- Market players told Expana US futures found support this month following a relative increase in demand, supported by US yield concerns.
Corn
Price drivers
↓ Macroeconomic Environment
The Brent crude oil price [Expana code: BCRD] decreased by 7.3% m-o-m in August to $67.22/barrel.
Market players said that uncertainty ahead of US-Russia talks on ending the war in Ukraine led to some declines in price. Players said that following the talks (August 15), oil felt more pressure as optimism has grown regarding potential peace agreements.
EU natural gas prices fell by 1.81% m-o-m in August to €33.52/MWh.
Similarly to price movements in oil, natural gas prices in Europe fell on the back of increased optimism surrounding peace agreements, which weighed on prices as traders heighten supply outlooks.
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite index decreased by 10.61% m-o-m to $2,250.34 per unit in August. Y-o-y, prices have declined by 57.69%.
Industry insiders noted that price reactions to recent tariff news indicated that most demand has already been realized without surprise effect. As well as this, market players said that the extension of the US-China trade truce has given some certainty in the market, likely keeping prices down.
↓ Fertilizer Cost
NPK Fertilizer [Expana code: 2H45] costs were €593/mt as of August 26, 2025, down 0.22% m-o-m and up 16.90% y-o-y.
Market players said the cost of mixed NPK blend fertilizers declined in August, reflecting seasonal easing, although larger declines were expected.
Corn
Price forecast
Corn
Market sentiment (for the month ahead)
Strong Supply Outlook
Following increased output projections for multiple producers, the USDA increased their estimate for ending stocks by 10.4 million mt m-o-m to total 282.5 million mt. Market players are aligning with a bearish tone for corn as record produce from the US and Brazil flood the market, while yield prospects for other major producers such as Ukraine and Argentina continue to improve.
↑ Frost Risks and Southern Rust in the US
Expana learnt from market participants that temperature outlooks for September are favoring cooler temperatures. Some sources said that by the middle of September, frosts could occur and potentially damage yields. Recent upward revisions to yields from the USDA could make the situation more volatile as market participants watch closely for further potential revisions. As well as this, market players have expressed concerns about the spread of southern rust, which could also damage yields.
↓ Argentina To Boost Output in the 2025/2026 Season
On August 20, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) reported that Argentina’s planted corn area for the 2025/2026 season could rise by 9.6% year-on-year to an estimated 7.8 million hectares. Market sources said that this could pressure prices, as supporting rainfall and a larger planted area has pushed production forecasts from sources to up to 54 million mt, with the USDA projecting 53 million mt.
↓ Better Ukrainian Yield Prospects
Yield prospects in Ukraine were initially a topic of concern for market players due to drought conditions earlier in the season. Throughout July, weather had been mostly favorable and trader forecasts for total corn output rose throughout the month. In August, improving yield prospects remained a key theme in the market. The USDA increased its forecast by 1.5 million mt in its August WASDE report (August 12), pushing the total forecast up to 32 million mt. However, there are discrepancies among sources about what the final figure could be, with estimates ranging from 29-34 million mt.
↓ Higher Production in Brazil for 2025/2026 Season
Market sources estimate total Brazilian corn production to reach 138.4 million mt in the 2025/2026 season, a 0.7% increase from the last season, supported by a 1.3% estimated increase of the total planted area. Sources added that rising domestic consumption ad global demand has driven the increase.
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