Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics
Economic indicators
- Y-O-Y percentage change
- M-O-M index basket change
- USDX as of August 27, 2025, previous as of July 30, 2025. All energy values are monthly prices.
Key Points
Natural gas prices declined in line with storage builds and ample stocks.
Inflation in the US and the Eurozone stabilized in July, with annualized figures unchanged.
Ocean container freight rates fell throughout the month due to the growth in container capacity.
Macroeconomics
Inflation
US
In the US, the CPI was 2.7% y-o-y in July, unchanged on an annualized basis from June 2025. Deflation among energy commodities was visible from the data, with gasoline and fuel oil registering –9.5% y-o-y and –2.9% y-o-y, respectively. However, energy services were a major driver behind the headline figure, with electricity and piped gas at 5.5% y-o-y and 13.8% y-o-y, respectively. Elsewhere, food inflation was slightly above the headline figure, at 2.9%, but was unchanged m-o-m. Players expect a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting despite the slightly hotter inflationary environment.
Eurozone
In the Eurozone, inflation was 2.0% in July, unchanged on an annualized basis from the June result. The result is in line with the European Central Bank (ECB) target.
Energy continued to pull the headline figure downward, registering -2.4%, while most other subindices remained unchanged. Food, alcohol and tobacco edged up to 3.3%, driven by unprocessed food, which rose from 4.6% y-o-y in June to 5.4% y-o-y in July.
China
In China, the CPI was 0.0% on an annualized basis in July, decelerating from 0.1% in June. However, the July result was higher than market expectations of -0.1%. Market sources noted that volatile weather conditions, namely extreme heat and heavy rain, disrupted supply chains, especially of agricultural and protein products. Furthermore, domestic demand reportedly remained weak. Players also noted that the producer price index fell 3.6% y-o-y, declining to the lowest level in around two years.
Macroeconomics
Price forecast
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