Wheat
Wheat
Price movements (monthly)
CBOT Futures Prices
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Euronext Futures Prices
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- The Euronext milling wheat futures price decreased by €11.50/mt m-o-m to €182.25/mt, while the CBOT wheat futures price decreased by $1.65/mt to $185.19/mt.
- This month, market sources have primarily credited downward price movements on the Euronext and CBOT towards increasing global supply prospects and lower demand.
- Sources said that milling wheat availability is varied and could had slowed declines over the last month. Market players have reported that French grain quality is slipping, while Canadian wheat is impacted by drought and protein content in US wheat is uneven.
Wheat
Supply
EU
Wheat harvests across the EU are being concluded this month. FranceAgriMer estimates that 69% of the crop is in good/excellent condition, well above the 49% recorded last year. In Germany, sources said that wheat production has rebounded, with harvests nearing 21.7 million mt, up by 21.9% y-o-y. Sources say that rains have impacted the quality of the harvest in some parts of Germany and Poland, but the overall outlook remains optimistic. In the August JRC Mars Bulletin, the European Commission pegs for better yields of 5.92 mt/ha for total wheat, compared to the five year average of 5.55 mt/ha. Market players suggest total wheat production could reach between 132-138 million mt.
Ukraine
According to data from the Ukrainian ministry of economy, environment, and agriculture, 18.9 million mt of wheat has been harvested as of August 15 from 4.3 million ha with a yield of 4.3 mt/ha. Sources added that wheat harvesting is nearing completion at 88%. The USDA project total output to be 22 million mt.
Russia
Russian consultancy IKAR raised its forecast for 2025 wheat production to 85.5 million mt (August 18) from 84.5 million, citing improvements in the Volga and central regions. Market participants added that good yields in Ural and Siberian producers could also add more supply to the Russian market. On the other hand, sources said that dry weather conditions have impacted and will likely continue to impact spring wheat in the southwest of Russia.
Australia
Australian wheat production in the 2025/2026 season has been estimated by the USDA to reach up to 31 million mt, while the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasted 33.8 million mt. Market players believe that this figure could rise to 35 million mt. If realized, this would be above last year’s crop of 34.1 million mt. Sources say that the weather outlook has been favorable, facilitating the rebound in production. However, some areas remain dry.
US
The USDA forecasts 2025/2026 wheat production to reach 52.5 million mt, making a small downward projection of 47,000 mt. Market players said that weather conditions had been mostly favorable for harvests. The USDA’s most recent crop progress report highlights that 53% of the spring wheat area has been harvested. 49% of the crop has been rated good/excellent, which is 20 points lower than the same period last year.
Canada
Statistics Canada projected total wheat production to reach 35.5 million, down slightly from last year. The USDA is almost aligned with this forecast with this figure, estimating 35 million mt. Market players said that wet and rainy weather has hindered crop progress, but expect to see warmer dryer weather support the crop in the near term. Grain quality remains a key focus among traders.
Argentina
In Argentina, the Rosario grains exchange expects the wheat harvest to reach 20 million mt, 15.3% above the five-year average. Market participants cited favorable planting conditions from abundant rainfall and reduced pest pressure, though some sources urged caution over potential risks ahead. The USDA’s forecast is down by 300,000 mt m-o-m to 19.7 million mt.
India
For India, sources said that despite earlier fears of poor yields, India’s 2025 wheat harvest surpassed expectations. The food Corporation of India has reportedly procured 29.7 million mt, which is the highest figure in four years, with expectations that it could reach 32.5 million mt. Although currently showing moderate growth, long term concerns regarding climate change and water scarcity were voiced by the Union of Agriculture this month.
Wheat
Price forecast
Trusted by industry leaders
About Expana
Expana is the world's largest IOSCO-certified commodity price reporting database.
With 34,000+ timely commodity prices and 1,500 price forecasts across agrifood and industrial markets, you can enhance price visibility throughout your supply chain, reduce costs, lower COGS, and mitigate risk.
Brands by Expana: Mintec Analytics, Urner Barry, Feed Info, Stratégie Grains, Tropical Research Services
Disclaimer
Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this report or associated content. To the extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available herein constitutes or is to be taken as constituting or the giving of investment or financial advice by Expana, or any of its affiliates or their employees to any person, organisation or entity. Any use or reliance on the information and any suggestions, insights or guidance made against such content is entirely at your own risk.
For details on the methodology used to assess the Expana Benchmark Prices, visit this link.