Beef
Beef
Price movements (monthly)
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Aus/NZ to China Beef - 25075
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
US Beef - ComCode 3606
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
EU Beef - MDC2
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
AUS
- Prices of Australian beef continued to post gains as Australia capitalized on global supply gaps and tariff-driven realignments in key markets.
- Australia’s beef exports in Q3 2025 surged 16.2% YoY to 425,016 mt, official data showed. China led the quarterly growth as buyers turned to Australian beef to replace grain-fed US product following punitive tariffs and delayed import license renewals since April.
- Ample production during New Zealand’s offseason further reinforced Australia’s advantage.
US
- The price of live cattle in the US increased by 3.0% month-over-month in August 2025 to a record $2.40/lbs. This was up by 27.3% year-over-year.
- The pace of cattle slaughter remained below year-ago levels, falling by 6.8% YTD through August 16. The average dressed steer weight as of August 9 was 939 lbs, up by 14 lbs Y-O-Y and 2 lbs lower W-O-W, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
- The USDA adjusted its estimated 2025 beef production downward from last month's forecast to 25.926 billion lbs. Annual beef production is expected to fall by about 4%, compared to 2024.
EU
- In August, EU beef prices rose by 2.08% compared to the previous month, reaching €7,277.25 per metric ton. Supply-side constraints have been the primary factor keeping prices elevated both month-over-month (M-O-M) and year-over-year (Y-O-Y)
- In August, subdued demand, partly driven by historically high prices, led to a bearish market sentiment. However, as the holiday season progressed, prices regained strength.
Beef
Price drivers
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite decreased by 12% M-O-M and 56% Y-O-Y to $2,340 per unit in August. The decline in freight rates is explained by the fact that a significant portion of cargo was shipped in advance in July to avoid the August tariff deadlines, after which volumes fell sharply. Additional pressure is being exerted by the growth in container capacity, which has exacerbated the problem of global overcapacity. As a result, carriers have been unable to maintain prices, and rates on key routes continue to fall.
↑ Feed Costs
Feed grains are a significant component of livestock production costs. As a result, any price decreases in maize (corn) and wheat could push prices of animal protein downward.
EU wheat prices fell month-over-month due to strong production outlooks, with concerns over grain quality easing as harvests wrapped up in dry weather. German wheat output rebounded, up 21.9% year-over-year.
EU corn prices also dropped in August, influenced by bearish global fundamentals, such as higher-than-expected US yields and record output in the US and Brazil. While Ukrainian corn production forecasts rose, crop stress from dryness across Europe helped limit further losses in futures markets.
↑ Energy Prices
Electricity prices in Europe and the US fell by less than 1% month-over-month. As a result, production costs remained virtually unchanged from the previous month. Given that scrap steel and electricity prices changed insignificantly, the cost of steel production in electric furnaces remained stable in August.
Beef
Price forecast
Beef
Market sentiment: US
Tight US Inventories
Market sentiment in August has shifted to a more bullish tone. While demand remains seasonally dull, limited availability has kept overall tones firm.
→ Inflation Held Steady in July
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 2.7% annually in July, steady with the month prior. The food index increased by 2.9% over the past 12 months. The meat, poultry, fish, and eggs index increased by 0.2% last month, with a 1.5% increase in the beef index and a 3.9% decrease in the eggs index.
↑ On Feed Inventory 1.6% Below Year Ago
The August 2025 USDA cattle-on-feed report showed a 1.6% decrease in the on-feed number. June placements were 6% below a year ago, about three points above trade expectations.
↑ US Maintains Ban on Mexican Cattle Imports Amid NWS Concerns
The US border remains closed to Mexican cattle imports until further notice due to New World Screwworm concerns.
The US reported its first travel-related human case of NWS in late August. No US animals have been infected with the parasite to date.
Beef
Market sentiment: EU
Tight EU Supply
Limited supply, combined with production uncertainties and robust seasonal demand, is expected to support a bullish market sentiment throughout the month.
↑ Rise in Seasonal Demand
Demand for select beef cuts, such as round cuts and stew making beef, are expected to rise in the summer barbecue season.
↑ Projected Decline in Beef Production
The cattle sector is facing multiple limiting factors related to diseases, high input costs, and profitability challenges. Structural constraints in the supply chain are being compounded by the early slaughter of cattle, as farmers aim to take advantage of elevated market prices. Should current supply-side pressures persist, the EU beef market may face sustained upward pressure on prices—posing affordability concerns for consumers over the medium term.
↑ Government Regulations Impact on Output
In several regions across Europe, farmers are being incentivized to scale back livestock production, a trend that is influencing sentiment and shaping long-term decision-making within the sector. For example, in the Netherlands, the EU has approved a €128 million compensation fund to support Dutch livestock farmers who voluntarily shut down their operations. This initiative is part of broader efforts to meet nitrogen emission reduction targets and comply with EU environmental and biodiversity commitments.
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