Packaging
Packaging
Price movements (monthly)
August 2025 Price
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- The Expana Global Packaging Category Index (ECI) changed insignificantly in August. Prices for metals used in packaging exerted growing pressure, especially in the US market, while raw materials for paper packaging production became cheaper. Paper and plastic packaging also became cheaper due to low demand.
- The US Packaging Category Index (ECI) rose by 1% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in August to $1,718/mt. A steady increase in the index has been observed since June, driven by tariff policy. The main growth driver is metal packaging, which was hit with 50% import tariffs.
Packaging
Price drivers
↑ Steel Hot Rolled Coil
In August, global steel prices showed weak growth. However, market sources point to market uncertainty in September and therefore remain cautious in their expectations.
One of the main drivers of growth was the rise in raw material prices, which significantly increased the cost of production, primarily for converter steel. Nevertheless, China was the main driver, and the rise in raw material prices may come to a halt in September.
→ LME Aluminum
Aluminum 3-month prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) exhausted their growth potential in July and fluctuated within a narrow range in August. There were no significant fundamental changes in demand, supply, or cost.
The Midwest US aluminum premium was relatively stable throughout August, but given the lower level at the beginning of July, there was a 7% m-o-m increase on average for the month of August.
↑ Ethylene
Ethylene prices in Europe continued to edge up throughout August on increased downstream demand. However, a quieter market in the US resulted in a limited sell-off.
→ Propylene
Propylene market dynamics remained largely unchanged throughout August, with prices mostly moving sideways. Supply remains ample, with demand satisfactory.
↓ Pulp
Pulp prices in the EU and in the US continued their decline in August. NBSK pulp price in the EU fell by 4% m-o-m and 11% y-o-y in August. Demand for pulp was seasonally weak, so prices continued to decline amid low business activity.
→ Recycled Paper
In the US and the EU, waste paper prices remained stable with minimal fluctuations amid seasonally moderate demand. In China, prices continue to rise steadily amid growing demand.
→ Electricity Price
Electricity prices in Europe and the US fell by less than 1% m-o-m in August. As a result, production costs for electricity in metal production did not change significantly in August.
↓ Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Crude oil prices decreased throughout August, chiefly attributable to the impact of OPEC+ output hikes adding supply to the market.
In the EU, prices continued to fall in line with a storage build and even the remote prospect of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, following the meeting between President Trump and President Putin.
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite decreased by 13% m-o-m and 57% y-o-y to $2,286 per unit in August. The decline in freight rates is explained by the fact that a significant portion of cargo was shipped in advance in July to avoid the August tariff deadlines, after which volumes fell sharply. Additional pressure is being exerted by the growth in container capacity, which has exacerbated the problem of global overcapacity. As a result, carriers have been unable to maintain prices, and rates on key routes continue to fall.
→ Macroeconomic Environment
Crude oil prices decreased throughout August, chiefly attributable to the impact of OPEC+ output hikes adding supply to the market.
In the EU, prices continued to fall in line with a storage build and even the remote prospect of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, following the meeting between President Trump and President Putin.
Packaging
Supply
Plastics
Manufacturing dynamics across the EU and China were broadly comparable, with output rising since spring to cater for anticipated increased demand. However, according to market sources, product availability remains ample in both regions, weighing on prices.
In the US, manufacturing levels continued to trend slightly downwards but remain relatively consistent compared to the last three years. Participants noted that there is an ample supply in the market.
Metals
Global steel production slowed its decline to 1.9% y-o-y for the first seven months of 2025. The US accelerated growth amid rising domestic steel demand. However, steel output cuts in the EU and Turkey reduced scrap consumption, leaving the market oversupplied.
Growth in global primary aluminum production slowed to 1.7% year-on-year. Nevertheless, China is actively increasing production, producing 4% more year-on-year in July, for a total of 2% year-on-year growth for the first seven months of 2025, after a slowdown in April and May.
The most recent available data show that in May 2025, US secondary aluminum production increased by 7% m-o-m, reflecting higher consumption amid tariff pressure. For the first five months of 2025, total secondary aluminum output reached 1.56 million mt, up 0.6% y-o-y. The market shows acceleration in monthly dynamics, confirming stronger scrap demand.
Glass
Glass manufacturing remains steady in the EU, with some sources increasingly optimistic about prospects of an industry recovery in the region. However, others believe that the robust manufacturing trend is simply the result of seasonally higher summer demand.
Although China’s manufacturing is consistent, participants report that the domestic and export markets are suffering from sluggish demand. Consequently, sources anticipate a decline in glass output as manufacturers start to balance with demand.
Poor alcoholic beverage sales in the US have resulted in a continued downtrend in glass container manufacturing. Sources do not expect any marked change in the market to result in a change in manufacturing trends in the US in the short term.
Paper
Roughly 6% of containerboard capacity in the US has been removed since the start of 2025. Those closures resulted in increases in capacity utilization in summer as the demand from the closed mills shifted. Shifts in packaging preferences by both consumers and retailers are favoring paper in the long term, due to its recyclability and low-carbon production during manufacturing. EPR laws in some states are beginning to monetarily incentivize the use of more recyclable materials, including paper.
Production of paper and paper products in the EU remained relatively stable in H1 2025. Eurostat statistics for May were revised upward, which helped stabilize the overall picture for H1.
Packaging
Price forecast
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