Rapeseed oil
Rapeseed oil
Price movements (monthly)
Rapeseed Oil FOB R’dam (EBP)
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- The Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for Rapeseed Oil FOB Rotterdam was assessed at €1,055.50/mt on August 29, 2025, up by 1.93% month-on-month (m-o-m).
- Prices in the rapeseed complex moved higher as demand increased from the food and biodiesel sectors.
Rapeseed oil
Price drivers
↓ Macroeconomic Environment
The average Brent crude oil price decreased by 3.4% m-o-m in August to $67.18/barrel. Crude oil prices decreased throughout August, chiefly attributable to the impacts of OPEC+ output hikes adding supply to the market. Furthermore, a m-o-m fall in imports to China lowered demand optimism, while recent data showed US ending stocks beginning to climb.
However, sources continue to monitor conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Palestine, for the possibility of supply disruption.
EU gas prices fell by 3.6% m-o-m in August to €32.75/MWh. Prices continued to fall in line with a storage build and even the remote prospect of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, following the meeting between President Trump and President Putin.
→ Vegetable Oil Substitution
Developments in how the main vegetable oil (rapeseed oil, palm oil, sunflower oil and soybean oil) markets will respond to US President Trump’s policy/tariffs and other governmental policies will need to be closely watched for vegetable oil impacts.
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite decreased by 12% M-O-M and 56% Y-O-Y to $2,340 per unit in August.
The decline in freight rates is explained by the fact that significant portion of cargo was shipped in advance in July to avoid the August tariff deadlines, after which volumes fell sharply.
Additional pressure is being exerted by the growth in container capacity, which has exacerbated the problem of global overcapacity. As a result, carriers have been unable to maintain prices, and rates on key routes continue to fall.
Rapeseed oil
Price forecast
Rapeseed oil
Market sentiment (for the month ahead)
Uncertainty
Market players described sentiment for September as cautious. While potentially large EU and UK crops have eased immediate supply worries, ongoing weather issues in Ukraine and fragile export flows remain key risks, sources said. Industry insiders added that further supply disruptions or renewed biodiesel demand could support prices, but most participants are waiting for clearer signals from the market before committing.
↓ Margins & Demand
Market players told Expana that there had been a noticeable increase in demand this month across all key buying sectors particularly food and biodiesel. The uptick in buying from the biodiesel sector has been significant, as margins for creating Rapeseed Methyl Ester (RME) from rapeseed oil are at the highest level for several months, sitting at around $160/mt for spot and a similar level for November-December-January 2026. Market players commented that it was likely that biodiesel players would continue to purchase rapeseed oil in the coming weeks as the margins in their view should be strong enough to support buying into the end of 2025. If this is the case it could add upward price pressure to the rapeseed oil market which has not been seen to this degree throughout 2025 as biodiesel players have been buying piecemeal as margins have been close to or below full cost for a significant period.
Turning to crush margins, market players reported a continued weakening in the meal leg of the rapeseed complex which could go some way to support rapeseed oil prices. This is because crushers are reported to be increasing rapeseed oil prices to offset the weakness in rapeseed meal. The increase on the rapeseed oil end has so far kept the crush margins at around €47/mt, which is considered a healthy crush margin to procure rapeseed and get it into crush. The abundance of protein including rapeseed meal, soybean meal and even sunflower meal in the EU could mean that prices for rapeseed meal continue to weaken, therefore potentially driving further price increases on rapeseed oil, market players said. If this is the case, it could add ‘artificial’ upward pressure to the rapeseed oil market in September on the back of this margin protection, market players said.
→ Production & Crop Prospects
Australian: Rapeseed production may offer some offset after an upward revision of roughly 230,000 mt to around 6.3 million mt. Market players warned that while Australia is traditionally a key supplier to the EU (accounting for approximately 60% of its exports in 2024/25), growing Chinese bookings for later-season cargoes and freight advantages could divert volumes away from Europe, altering supply dynamics. Taken together, sources concluded that EU import needs of 5–7 million mt will be pivotal in balancing softer European and Ukrainian crop outcomes alongside uncertain Canadian export flows.
European: rapeseed yields have been disappointing relative to early projections, market participants reported. The European Commission estimated 18.8 million mt while other sources forecast above 19.3 million mt. “It’s too early to say where the crop will land, with yields so variable,” a trader said. Despite yield concerns, industry insiders noted oil content was generally strong at 47–48%, which should support output once the crop reaches crushers. In Ukraine, about 95% of the rapeseed area has been harvested, with volumes around 3 million mt collected and yields averaging 2.54 mt/ha, down from last year’s 2.72 mt/ha. Market participants estimated Ukraine’s total crop between 3.1 and 3.2 million mt, below last season and USDA forecasts. Sources said lower Ukrainian volumes were not yet a critical issue for EU processors but cautioned that further declines could tighten regional balances.
Canadian: Market sources highlight ongoing harvest delays in western growing regions due to cool, wet weather, with some concern over pod-fill disease risk and yield impact. “Farmers are cautious given the weather; selling remains slow with input costs rising sharply,” a Canadian trader said. Industry insiders suggested that Canada’s exportable supply remained the largest component of global availability, and any weakness or slowdown in Canadian shipments will increase pressure on importers and potentially tighten EU supply further. Given the Chinese 75.8% duty effectively closing that market, sources say Europe remains the natural outlet for displaced Canadian canola, creating a focal point for trade flows in the coming months.
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