Crab
Crab
Price movements (monthly)
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UB Crab, Snow, Cluster, Newfoundland..
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- Alaska's quota was announced this month and is up 97 percent to 9.3 million pounds. Norway's quota is almost fully caught. Production has paused July 1st and will resume December 1st. The 2025 Gulf quota was down 28 percent while out of Newfoundland the quota was up 9 percent for 2025. Total possible quota is under 100,000 MT, 97,345 MT for 2025 which is less 6 percent than 2024.
Crab
Price forecast
The price of Snow Crab is 9.50 USD/lb, where it has remained since prices climbed sharply between May and August.
It is in the middle of the Regression fair value range and therefore fairly priced. The fair value range has trended higher since 2023, exerting upward pressure on the price but it appears to have flattened in 2025.
From a seasonal perspective, prices typically peak in November prior to a decline that accelerates towards the end of the first quarter. This aligns with our forecast of a relatively steady price prior to a decline in Q1 2026.
Canadian Snow Crab supply has been increasing in recent years and the supply/demand balance (as a percent of demand) rose last year, as demand also softened. This combination should exert downward pressure on prices.
Recent global PMI reports have been above 50, indicating growth between August and October, which has supported prices at these levels and may continue to in the short term.
Snow Crab has trended sideways for a number of months. Prior to this, bearish divergences formed on the charts, which, from a technical analysis standpoint, indicates prices may have temporarily peaked or that a peak is near.
We expect prices to be broadly steady over the next couple of months, with some minor fluctuations, before a decline in Q1.
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