Thanksgiving Pecan Pie Index
The Expana Thanksgiving pecan pie index increased by 5.26% YOY, which was driven almost entirely by higher pecan prices offsetting declines in sugar, vanilla and butter pricing.
Pecans
The Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for US pecan halves (CFR Europe) rose by 17.3% YOY to $6.23/lb. in October 2025. Prices have stayed elevated and continued their upward trend since summer 2024, when early signs emerged that the crop might fall short of expectations.
Supplies of pecan halves have remained tight for much of the year, and demand has stayed strong. This combination has kept prices well supported throughout the period, with pecan halves commanding a premium in the market.
Some price volatility has emerged in recent weeks as sellers prepare for the new crop, but early crop estimates are again pointing to lower production year over year. This suggests that the supply tightness that has characterized the pecan halves market may persist into the next season, according to market participants.
Meanwhile, pecan pieces have been more readily available, which has kept those prices steadier and at a discount to pecan halves. The contrast highlights how different supply conditions between the two products have created distinct pricing patterns in the market.
Sugar
The spot price of raw cane sugar (#16) at the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) New York reached $0.34/lb. in October 2025, a decrease of 12% YOY. Meanwhile, world raw sugar futures (ICE NY #11) reached a five-year low, at $0.14/lb. The decline is primarily driven by a global sugar surplus. The USDA is projecting a record global sugar production of roughly 189 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, a 4.7% increase YOY. The rise in estimates is based on higher production in Brazil and India, which is expected to offset declines in the European Union.
While domestic raw futures typically follow suit with world futures, industry participants expect spot and contract prices in the domestic market to lag global sentiment. In the US, the market has been quiet throughout the year based on improving supply availability and weaker demand. Sources tell Expana that excess supply has hampered demand and that consumers are eating less sugar.
Over the last five years, US sugar consumption has been steadily declining, according to USDA data. Some of the decrease can be attributed to the growing use of GLP-1 drugs. As a result, several industry players state that holiday preparations were lighter compared to last year.
Total US sugar imports are also projected to hit their lowest levels since 2007/08. In addition to declining sugar consumption, the USDA credits the reduction to a variety of factors including lower export quotas from Mexico and higher domestic production. The EBP for beet sugar spot Midwest was last assessed at $0.47/lb., while the EBP for cane sugar spot Southeast was most recently assessed at $0.50/lb., 4% and 11% below a year ago, respectively.
Vanilla
The EBP for gourmet vanilla (FOB Madagascar) declined by 12% in the 12 months through to October 2025, to $65/kg, pressured by a plentiful harvest in Madagascar in 2025, the top vanilla producer, and high global stocks.
Madagascar’s 2025 vanilla production is anticipated to reach in excess of 3,300 mt, with some market participants projecting a crop of around 3,500 mt, a large increase on the previous season. The harvest has produced a greater proportion of shorter beans and the quality is good. The continued supply glut is weighing on prices, with ample stocks in both origin and destination markets.
The low market prices are expected to spur demand in the new export campaign, which started in Madagascar in the first half of November, delayed by political changes in the country.
In mid-October, former president Andry Rajoelina fled the country during a military coup and Michael Randrianirina was sworn in as the new president. Rajoelina was later stripped of his citizenship.
Butter
The average US butter price declined sharply in October, falling to $1.74 per pound, down from $2.12 per pound in September and roughly 40% lower year over year.
The primary driver behind this correction has been exceptionally abundant cream supplies, fueled by both elevated milkfat levels and strong nationwide milk output. US butter production through July reached 185.5 million pounds, a 5.4% increase year to date as manufacturers continued to capitalize on readily available cream and higher profit margins.
Many processing plants across major dairy regions have been able to run at or near full capacity for an extended stretch from summer well into the fall due to these favorable supply conditions. Milk production trends are reinforcing this momentum. YTD milk output is up around 2%, an unseasonably strong performance that has added further weight to butter prices by contributing to steadily growing inventories creating a supply-heavy environment that continues to suppress demand.
Eggs
The US shell egg market sits in a markedly different position than a year ago, with October values reflecting both substantial month-over-month softness and sharp year-over-year declines. After surging to a record $8.58/dozen in Q1 amid widespread HPAI losses, prices have been under persistent pressure through much of 2025 as repopulation efforts expanded and demand recalibrated in the wake of those extreme highs.
Midwest Large dropped to $1.62/dozen in October—a new year-to-date low and down significantly from September levels. On a year-over-year basis, October prices are tracking far below 2024’s $4.25 per dozen, underscoring the extent of demand destruction that followed the early-year spike.
Despite this weaker baseline, values began to rebound modestly into late October as retailers lowered shelf tags in response to cheaper wholesale offerings, stimulating stronger consumer engagement. Many retail price points have now dipped below $2.00/dozen, aiding clearance as Thanksgiving and seasonal baking demand ramps up.
While HPAI remains a looming risk, recent layer losses of roughly 5.5 million since September pale in comparison to the 21 million lost in Q4 2024. Inventories remain above last year’s levels even with slightly reduced production, contributing to a more tempered price environment heading into the holiday season.
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