Beef Outlook
Commentary by Emily Schlichtig, Augusto Eto, Junie Lin, Jaime Almeida, and Rutika Ghodekar
Global beef markets look set to remain tight into 2026 as constrained herds, trade and inspection uncertainty, seasonal buying patterns, and uneven regional demand are combining to support elevated prices and firm undertones across many origins.
The US faces multi-decade low cattle inventories and high carcass and cut values. On November 20, the White House signed an order to remove the 40% tariff on a variety of Brazilian agricultural products, which included beef, making some participants hopeful for increased supplies.
Brazil remains the world’s beef export engine, with slaughter at record highs, but volumes to some markets will be largely dependent on Chinese buying patterns, the outcome of China’s anti-dumping probe (extended to January 26).
Brazilian live cattle prices are currently firm, and seasonal pasture improvements during the summer/rain season may ease producer marketing pressure.
Mexico’s domestic supply is limited as strict inspection protocols and curtailed Central American inflows are aimed at preventing the New World Screwworm spread.
Australia’s overall kills may ease slightly in 2026 as female slaughter declines, yet higher carcass weights and feedlot expansion should keep grain fed volumes competitive for the US, Japan, and South Korea.
New Zealand is likely to see continued downward pressure on kills as dairy farmers hold cows longer because of strong milk prices, directing its exports toward higher value markets and relying on wider quota access to South Korea.
China’s demand for imported beef remains subdued amid slow economic recovery, weak consumer confidence and policy noise; pork and chicken price moves will continue to influence beef. South Korea should see resilient import demand as Hanwoo production tightens and per capita consumption rises. Japan faces price sensitivity and a shift toward cheaper proteins in some channels.
Constrained cattle supply due to structural changes in 2024 and heavy cattle slaughter earlier in 2025 amid record high prices continue to drive UK and EU prices in late Q4-2025.
Slaughter numbers in Q4 2025 could be temporarily limited as producers attempt to rebuild herds and secure longer-term supply.
UK reforms to farm payments and potential changes to inheritance tax continue to influence farm-level decision-making.
In the EU, animal welfare regulations and the Deforestation Regulation continue to challenge the supply side. According to sources, these factors could accelerate culling activity if producers choose to scale back operations or exit production, ultimately impacting prime cattle availability in early 2026. Any expansion of the beef herd will take time to filter through the production cycle, suggesting that supply recovery during 2026 will likely be limited. Sources, however, believe EU and UK beef prices will remain strong in early 2026 due to expectation of limited availability of cattle for slaughter on the market.
However, market participants also caution that if prices continue to rise in early 2026, demand could contract sharply, as observed in mid-2025. Persistent price inflation remains a key threat to consumer confidence.
Other variables to watch are Mexico’s export reopening timeline, China’s anti-dumping outcome, seasonal pasture conditions in South America, and holiday driven order cycles in Asia.
Beef Forecast
Commentary by Bruno Whittaker
Beef prices rose to historic levels in 2025, continuing the extended uptrend that started in 2020, fueled by tightening supply and sustained demand. It is expected that prices will remain high in 2026 due to limited supply. However, after the summer seasonal rally, prices are expected to ease. Our technical and fundamental regression models indicate that the upside potential is limited.
The uptrend in beef prices is showing signs of weakness; implying the upside risk is nearing an end.
Despite the US beef cuts moving independently from one another, they have all steadily risen to historically elevated levels. This is again due to the constrained supply of beef, which will sustain the level over 2026. The individual cuts have a reliable seasonal pattern, causing them to act cyclically.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
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