Chicken Outlook
Commentary by Augusto Eto, Rutika Ghodekar, Dylan Hughes, Elliot Holgate and Elsi Rodewald
In the US chicken market, one of the major influences on trade in Q4 was the government shutdown that lasted through the start of November.
The suspension of SNAP benefits threw retail into disarray as eating habits shifted, which resulted in pressure through much of the chicken market. Still, the high price of competing proteins has continued to lend some support to the industry despite seasonal expectations of slower demand in Q4 as buyers typically lean more heavily into slow cooker meals.
Heading into Q1 2026, many players view the US market bullishly due to expectations of a seasonal increase in the consumption of lean proteins during the first of the year, as well as continued high beef prices. With that said, the USDA is projecting a 2.0% YOY increase in broiler production during Q1 2026.
The principal Q4 2025 market driver for Brazil’s chicken export sector was China’s decision to lift its ban on Brazilian poultry imposed after the HPAI case in May 2025.
China remains Brazil’s largest buyer, and demand heading into 2026 is strong for select cuts such as mid-joint-wings. However, in Europe, rising domestic output pressured imported Brazilian volumes and prices in Q4 as producers accelerated slaughter to mitigate HPAI risks.
Separately, the EU reinstated Brazil’s poultry pre-listing system, streamlining plant approvals. In the Brazilian market, Mexico’s renewal of the PACIC in November is expected to support demand by extending tariff exemptions on imports, though market participants noted that competition from US breast meat suppliers will likely cap price gains.
Meanwhile, Middle Eastern buyers have started precuring production ahead of Ramadan, which falls between February 17 and March 19, 2026. Brazil has revised its 2025 chicken export forecast from a projected 2% decline to likely volume growth.
In the EU and UK, demand has remained resilient as consumers maintain a preference for cost-effective proteins, amid signs of broader economic improvement across the region.
Supply-side dynamics remain heavily influenced by mounting disease pressures. HPAI and Newcastle disease continues to challenge the supplies in the EU market. Market participants anticipate a shift toward price recovery in coming weeks, driven by the likelihood of additional HPAI and Newcastle disease cases.
While the recent production surge meets immediate market needs, it is expected to curtail product availability toward the end of Q4 2025. Rising demand and increasing regulations, such as European Chicken Commitment (ECC) and Better Chicken Commitment (BCC) could continue to drive chicken prices in the EU and the UK. Regulatory changes across the continent could restrict supplies and increase cost of production in the medium term.
With challenges associated with supply and rising demand for chicken within Europe continent, sources indicate a bullish market sentiment.
Chicken Forecast
Commentary by Kevin Bull
Chicken EU and Chicken US are currently at opposite ends of their respective fundamental considerations.
For example, Chicken EU has seen prices rally well above the fair band, indicating it is far above what the overall fundamental position suggests. This has led to a 4.14% price decline from €302/100 kg to €290/100 kg since October 2025.
The forecast predicts further price declines as we move into 2026.
Chicken US has fallen sharply by 20.97% since Q2 2025, dropping from 135.70 USD cents/lb to 107.25 USD cents/lb. This places Chicken US well below the fair range, indicating that it is currently priced much lower than what the overall fundamentals support.
The forecast predicts further price advances as we move into 2026.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
Please contact Expana to get a view of how this works.
Trusted by industry leaders
About Expana
Expana is the world's largest IOSCO-certified commodity price reporting database.
With 36,000+ verified commodity prices and 1,500 price forecasts across agrifood and industrial markets, you can enhance price visibility throughout your supply chain, reduce costs, lower COGS, and mitigate risk.
Brands by Expana: Mintec Analytics, Urner Barry, Feedinfo, Stratégie Grains, Tropical Research Services
Disclaimer
Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this report or associated content. To the extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available herein constitutes or is to be taken as constituting or the giving of investment or financial advice by Expana, or any of its affiliates or their employees to any person, organisation or entity. Any use or reliance on the information and any suggestions, insights or guidance made against such content is entirely at your own risk.
For details on the methodology used to assess the Expana Benchmark Prices, visit this link.