Cocoa Outlook
Cocoa markets remain largely focused on Ivory Coast’s crop development.
In recent weeks, concerns about poor tree health and the outlook for the upcoming midcrop have conflicted with the strong pace of port arrivals. Market participants hold differing views on the reasons behind these firm arrivals, ranging from reduced cross-border smuggling, to a stronger start to the main crop that has already been harvested, and to an earlier than usual harvest encouraged by higher farmgate prices. Buying activity in the physical market has stayed subdued, with only sporadic buying reported, although participants expect interest to pick up following the slight rebound in prices. Ghana continues to track close to last season, providing some relative stability against mixed signals from Ivory Coast.
For early 2026, the central question is whether upcoming rains will help stabilize Ivory Coast’s crop and support a recovery in the midcrop before the dry season becomes fully established.
Early indications suggest the Harmattan winds should not begin unusually early this season, and may only come in January, offering a small window for conditions to improve. The 2025/2026 season is still expected to deliver a modest surplus, although market participants have been steadily revising that surplus lower as weak field conditions persist, a trend that is likely to have a bullish influence on price expectations. Ghana’s steadier crop offers some balance, but shipping pace and bean quality remain key variables heading into H1 2026.
ICE London Cocoa Mar-26 and ICE New York Cocoa Mar-26 continue to trade with a firm weather premium as participants wait for clearer crop signals.
Without a clear improvement in canopy structure or pod formation, buyers may continue to pay for elevated differentials, reinforcing a high-priced environment into the new year.
Cocoa Forecast
Commentary by Jamie Pakenham-Walsh
The weakness in cocoa prices throughout 2025 is potentially over extended.
While prices do remain in a long-term downtrend, a number of technical signals are warning of possible upside into the new year.
A break above the moving average would likely give us a signal to recommend hedging, but we will assess the fundamental situation again if/when that happens.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
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