Pork Outlook
Commentary by Mason Augustino and Sandro Schulz
Late Q4 is marked by an uptrend in US pork supplies as more hogs move through plants and hog weights edge higher, increasing total production.
Heavier weights and consistent weekly slaughter runs create fully adequate availability across most primals on the spot market. These supply conditions keep most fresh pork items steady to softer. US pork also remains competitively cheaper than turkey and beef, which may contribute to holiday demand patterns.
Heavier hog weight trends and increasing slaughter levels remain central drivers for early 2026. Export activity continues to influence product distribution. Mexico remains the primary outlet for exported hams and variety meats. Additionally, China’s tariff structure remains unchanged. National Pork Producers Council notes US retaliatory tariff on China is near 47%, while the 12% base import tariff and 13% VAT also remain. These combined costs keep China from importing as much US pork as it has historically, limiting interest in major muscle cuts and keeping demand centered on variety meats instead when needed.
Meanwhile, EU pork supply is strong in late Q4, supported by robust slaughter numbers.
Slaughterhouses are processing additional hogs ahead of the Christmas holiday period. Alongside higher slaughter rates, low feed costs are supporting heavier hog weights, contributing to rising average slaughter weights. Demand is expected to remain steady, and elevated beef and chicken prices could bolster consumer interest in pork cuts, industry sources said.
Early Q1 is projected to bring strong hog supplies across the EU. While processors are increasing Q4 production to limit a holiday-related hog buildup, reduced slaughter capacities over the Christmas and New Year period are still expected to result in a backlog early in Q1, consistent with seasonal patterns of recent years. Once the backlog clears, industry participants anticipate adequate supplies moving forward. Domestic buying interest is likely to remain steady in early 2026, but exporters are keeping a close eye on global trade flows, as pork exports remain key to balancing the EU market. China’s tariff framework is unchanged, with duties ranging from 15.6% to 62.4%.
US prices trend steady-to-lower across much of the pork complex in late-Q4 as larger supplies and higher hog weights lift production.
Most fresh cuts remain steady to softer. Trim markets hold mostly steady on adequate offerings, while hams trended lower heading into Thanksgiving on ample supplies.
With sufficient supply and stable to soft demand for EU pork, market sources indicated a steady-to-weak market sentiment.
Cuts across the shoulder, trimmings and the leg complex are expected to face downward price pressure because of low seasonal demand, while typical roasting and stewing items could see some upward price potential, industry sources said.
Pork Forecast
Commentary by Amanda Egedal
US CME pork and its forecasted cuts are now approaching temporary lows.
The complex has been led lower by the CME contract. Highlighting the leading relationship between the financially traded contract and its cuts has presented an opportunity to lock in prices on lean hogs, butts, and hams. Meanwhile, ribs, trimmings, and bellies are all nearing possible lows. However, they have not crossed key indicators for initiating hedges.
EU pork prices have been decimated by the implementation of tariffs by China, removing important demand from the market. These tariffs expired on December 16.
Prices could rebound if China resumes buying, but this is unknown at this time. Seasonally, EU pork does increase in Q1, so that upward pressure could be amplified if Chinese buyers return to the market.
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