Soybean Outlook
Sources told Expana that China’s recent purchases of US soybeans have provided firm support to soybean prices, although market players remain cautious about the longevity and scale of these volumes.
Traders said that South American offers remain more competitive, and many view the uptick in US buying as politically driven rather than a signal of sustained demand.
The International Grains Council forecasts global soybean consumption at a record of 430 million mt for the 2025/2026 season. Market players said continued growth in the livestock sector remains the primary driver of this demand outlook.
Brazil’s export program reflects this stronger demand.
Sources expect Brazilian November soybean shipments to reach up to 4.26 million mt, compared with the previous projection of 3.77 million mt and 82% above November 2024 levels. October exports also rose sharply, up 44% YOY.
The USDA’s November 14 WASDE report lowered both domestic production and stock forecasts for 2025/2026. Market players said that a tighter supply outlook could strengthen bullish sentiment while traders remain unsure about the sustainability of US-China trade.
Higher biofuel mandates from the US and Brazil are expected to boost domestic demand for soybean oil, potentially tightening exportable supply further.
Government policies will remain a key price driver in 2026.
As of November 25, the Expana benchmark price for Soyabean Oil FCA Netherlands [Expana code: SBOR] increased by 2.84% MOM, primarily driven by optimism following US–China trade agreements and tighter global supplies.
Chicago soybean futures have also risen, by a larger margin of 5.25% MOM, reflecting similar drivers and highlighting the tendency of futures markets to react more sharply and display greater volatility than the underlying physical market.
Soybean Forecast
Commentary by Jamie Pakenham-Walsh
Soybean prices rallied strongly throughout Q4 due to some bullish fundamental news.
Prices are in the early days of a new long-term uptrend, which suggests higher prices into 2026.
Seasonality supports the idea of this rally largely continuing into Q2, but this is not going to happen in a straight line, and some kind of pullback in Q1 is likely. Overall, there will certainly be opportunities to mitigate upside risk with strategic buying, and waiting for the correct signals ensures the highest likelihood of beneficial hedging.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
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