Wheat & Corn Outlook
WHEAT
Market players told Expana that in Q4 2025 the global wheat market remains heavily oversupplied, as production from major exporters exceeded earlier expectations.
In Russia, yields in the Urals and Siberia have come in far above projections, significantly lifting output. Australian production has recovered following a dry start to the season, the EU has rebounded sharply from last year’s weather-affected harvest, and favorable conditions in Argentina have set the country up for a strong crop, although some market players warn that flooding could cap final volumes.
Looking ahead to Q1 2026, sources say that wheat pricing will be driven largely by weather outcomes and political developments as winter sowing campaigns near completion and attention shifts to the formation of the 2026/2027 crop.
Market participants noted that early announcements on planted areas could have a minor influence on prices. Russia is expected to reduce its wheat acreage by up to 6%, and sources say other producers may follow a similar path given the current oversupply, with some shifting focus toward oilseed cultivation instead.
Recent developments in US–China trade negotiations had lifted grain futures over the past month, as optimism grew around a potential revival in Chinese buying.
However, prices have since been corrected lower as the underlying reality of global oversupply reasserted itself. As of November 25, Euronext wheat futures [Expana code: WHT2] are down 1.94% on the month and Chicago futures [Expana code: WHTC] have fallen 0.71%, with declines amplified by intense competition among major exporters to secure wheat business.
CORN
Similarly to wheat, corn is currently interpreted by market players as largely oversupplied.
The US and Brazil have both harvested record crops while Ukrainian output made a significant rebound following adverse weather conditions earlier in the season. Global corn production is up by 60 million mt YOY, according to the International Grains Council.
Market players are watching Argentina’s corn sowing campaign carefully, as traders are cautious about excessive water and floods impacting progress, and potentially limiting total output.
Higher biofuel mandates from the US and Brazil could also impact exportable supply, as domestic demand rises. As well as this, market players are expecting a smaller planned area for EU corn as yields have been disappointing in 2025/2026.
As of November 25, Euronext corn futures [Expana code: CRNP] are down by 0.95%, while Chicago futures [Expana code: CRNC] are down by 1.17%. Recent developments in US–China trade negotiations had lifted grain futures over the past month, as optimism grew around a potential revival in Chinese buying. However, the global supply situation led to corrections, bringing prices down.
Wheat & Corn Forecast
Commentary by Alana Barros
Euronext Wheat EU and CME Wheat US have been in an extensive downtrend, and the fundamentals suggest they could be overextended. Both prices are significantly below the fair value range, and technical indicators warn of a possible approaching low.
This means the downside potential is getting limited, leading to a price recovery as we move into 2026.
A price bottom has not yet been confirmed, and thus, we are monitoring for conclusive evidence.
Similarly, after extensive price declines for both Euronext maize EU and CME corn US, the market has begun to show signs of a price recovery.
Fundamentally, both prices are more than 10% below the fair value range, indicating upside potential for 2026. The technical indicators also confirm that the market is likely to be at the early stage of a trend shift into an uptrend, which, if confirmed, could indicate higher prices into early 2026.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
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