US Easter Bakery Index
Expana’s US Easter Bakery Index includes wheat, butter, sugar, milk and eggs. The index declined by 14.7% YOY to $1.24/lb with decreases in butter, sugar and egg prices offsetting higher prices of wheat and milk.
Breakdown by components:
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Wheat
US wheat prices slipped steadily through 2025 as ample global and domestic stocks weighed on the market, but persistent drought in soft red and hard red winter-wheat growing regions has underpinned gains in 2026 amid mounting concerns over potential yield losses. Traders caution it is still too early to lock in any definitive production shortfalls as timely rains could reverse the damage, yet current forecasts show no significant relief on the horizon.
At the same time, a surge in crude oil prompted by the US-Iran conflict has added another layer of support to wheat, lifting risk premiums and input-cost expectations (particularly fertilizer). The market is thus balancing abundant supply fundamentals against rising weather and geopolitical risks.
Butter
The CME price for butter was reported at $1.95/lb, down by 17.8% YOY. Butter prices remain below the previous year’s levels despite a favorable production environment, as elevated milk components—particularly butterfat and protein—coupled with unseasonably strong milk flows have created profitable conditions for butter manufacturers to operate at or near capacity for extended periods of time. Butter production increased 6% YOY as a result, which has created an abundant supply that has sustained downward price pressure.
US butter prices have remained positioned below global competitors’ price points, reflecting deliberate pricing strategies aimed at maintaining export market competitiveness and attracting international buying interest. The lower domestic price positioning relative to European Union and Oceania suppliers has helped support export volumes and provided an outlet for rising domestic production.
Milk
The CME price for US Class IV Milk was reported at $0.19/lb during March, an increase of 24% on the month, and a 4% increase. Class IV milk rebounded substantially in March, supported by strengthening international demand for finished products such as butter and butteroil. The rally in Class IV valuations reflected broader strength in butter markets as overseas buyers increased purchasing activity.
Despite milk flows running above seasonal expectations across major dairy regions, Class IV prices increased notably in the lead-up to the Easter holiday. The seasonal purchasing surge driven by Easter demand, combined with anticipation of the approaching spring flush season, created sufficient buying interest to support price appreciation despite the elevated milk supply.
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