US Easter Chocolate Index
Expana’s US Easter Chocolate Index comprises of cocoa bean, non-fat dried milk powder (NFDM) and sugar as key ingredients. The index fell by 40.85% YOY to $1.24/mt in March 2026, driven by weak cocoa and sugar prices.
Breakdown by components:
labore sit
Enim nulla esse ex anim.
labore sit
Enim nulla esse ex anim.
labore sit
Enim nulla esse ex anim.
labore sit
Enim nulla esse ex anim.
labore sit
Enim nulla esse ex anim.
Cocoa
Cocoa futures on the ICE New York exchange have seen a pronounced reversal since the extreme highs recorded ahead of Easter 2025. After peaking at $12,565/mt in December 2024 and remaining elevated above $10,000/mt through early 2025 (until February 10), prices gradually softened through the year, with a secondary peak at $10,974/mt on 19 May 2025 before entering a sustained downtrend. By February 2026, monthly averages had fallen sharply to the $3,543/mt on average, with prices dipping below $3,000/mt at points, and stabilizing around $3,150–3,200/mt by mid-March 2026 (until March 20).
For Easter-linked procurement, timing is critical. Chocolate manufacturers typically secure cocoa 6–12 months in advance, meaning Easter 2025 production was heavily exposed to the late-2024 and early-2025 price spike.
In contrast, procurement for Easter 2026 largely occurred during the steep correction phase from mid-2025 onwards, significantly reducing input cost pressures despite lingering volatility.
The sharp decline reflects a combination of improved supply expectations, demand destruction following the 2024 price shock, and easing speculative selling activity across commodity markets. While prices have rebounded slightly into March 2026, they remain highly sensitive to West African crop conditions and midcrop performance. Any rebound in demandi, weather disruptions, or further disease pressures could tighten supply expectations again, creating upward price pressure over the coming 3–6 months, particularly as the midcrop harvest progresses and revised output estimates emerge.
Nonfat Dried Milk
The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for NFDM was assessed at $1.80/lb, up by 55.17% YOY. Prices for US NFDM have surged significantly since late January 2026, with production declining 1.3% year-over-year. Dairy processors continue to strategically channel milk volumes into higher profit margin streams such as ultra-filtered milk and other protein-packed dairy products. The deliberate diversion of milk away from NFDM production has led to progressively tighter stock levels nationwide, with inventory declining at both the producer and distributor levels.
Limited product availability has forced buyers into increasingly competitive bidding for scarce allocations, creating a seller's market and sustaining strong upward price pressure throughout the market. Market sentiment has turned decidedly bullish on NFDM, with participants expecting prices to remain elevated as long as production constraints persist and milk diversion continues.
Sugar
The EBP for cane sugar spot FOB Southeast US decreased by 7% YOY in March, based on hampered demand and excess supply. Meanwhile, NY #11 nearby raw sugar futures prices dipped below $0.14/lb in February, a five-year low. Prices rebounded slightly during March on news of lower sugar production estimates domestically and globally but continue to hover around $0.14lb. Despite a recent rebound in raw sugar futures, prices have declined 23% YOY. Also, sources tell Expana that spot and contract prices for sugar are lower in Q1 2026 compared to a year ago. While demand has met expectations for Easter, movement has been lighter than in previous years.
The decline is mostly attributed to a shift in dietary habits and rising GLP-1 drug use. There could still be a push on the spot market for last-minute needs, according to market participants, but extra spot activity is yet to be seen.
In the latest WASDE report, domestic sugar production is projected to reach 9.28 million short tons, raw value (STRV). That is roughly 130,000 STRV less than the previous month as unfavorable weather conditions throughout Florida negatively impacted the sugarcane crop. A frost caused the decrease in production forecasts, and total US sugar production will no longer reach a record high in 2025/26 as previously anticipated, according to the USDA.
No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available to recipients or viewers of this content or associated documentation by Expana or its affiliates (“Expana”) otherwise constitutes or is to be taken as constituting, the giving of investment advice or an inducement to invest or purchase by Expana to any person, organisation or entity. Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this content. Any statement, observation, trend, price or otherwise presented herein is purely for discursive purposes only, is made on an “as-is” basis with no representation, warranty or otherwise. Any and all such content made available to you is open to interpretation and typographical error and Expana is not responsible for the accuracy of such content. To the maximum extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability to any recipient or viewer of this content or any other person or party for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. By viewing or using this content and/or subscribing to receive any associated documentation or further materials from us, you acknowledge and agree to the terms above.