US Easter Protein Index
US Easter Protein Index:
Lamb, beef, pork, salmon, cod & egg
Expana’s US Easter Protein Index commodities include meat (lamb, beef and pork), fish (salmon and cod), and eggs. The index fell by 0.77% YOY to $6.07/lb in March 2026, mainly influenced by lower pork and egg prices. This was partially mitigated by higher YOY prices of lamb, beef, salmon and cod.
Breakdown by components:
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European Protein Index Ingredients
Lamb, beef, pork, salmon, cod & egg
Lamb
Expana’s boneless lamb leg (LTL) was reported at $7.7250/lb for the week of March 16, 2026, unchanged MOM and up 2.3% YOY from the same week last year.
In a broader context, prices bottomed in October 2025 at $6.8750/lb, placing current levels 12.4% above that low and near the upper end of the annual range. Over the year, 2025 prices eased from the spring into the fall before strengthening in December and holding firm into early 2026, with limited movement observed in recent weeks.
Seasonally, demand for lamb typically builds ahead of Easter, with procurement occurring in advance of the holiday through late winter and early spring. Current price levels reflect this period of active buying rather than earlier lower-priced fall levels. On the supply side, both domestic and imported product continue to influence availability, with tighter conditions noted domestically as well as from Australia and New Zealand, reinforcing elevated values.
Beef
US beef prices continued their climb into record territory this year, with tight cattle supplies pushing the Easter Protein Index higher. Expana’s price of 109E 1 Lip-On, Bone-In Up Choice (Rib Roast) rose 18.15% year-over-year to $10.22/lb in March 2026.
Although prices entered 2026 below 2025 levels, early optimism for softer values faded quickly. Buyers moved ahead of typical seasonal procurement schedules, and by early February, prices were already outpacing the prior year. Since January alone, bone-in rib values have increased 15.5%.
The US cattle cycle appears to still be in contraction, with the herd at 86.2 million head as of January 1 down 0.4% year-over-year. While this marks a slower rate of decline compared to the previous year, there are still limited signs of meaningful herd rebuilding.
Ongoing pressures, including drought, elevated input costs, and strong cash cattle prices, continue to incentivize producers to market cattle rather than retain them, keeping supplies tight.
Despite these constraints, demand for beef remains resilient. Consumers have continued to absorb higher prices, supporting overall market strength.
Procurement for Easter began earlier than usual, with buyers stepping in as early as mid-to-late January, well ahead of the typical February timeline seen previous year. This mirrors a broader shift in buying patterns observed in 2025, where procurement for major holidays has been pulled forward amid supply concerns. Limited price relief from alternative cuts, combined with tighter rib supplies and ongoing disruptions to slaughter schedules, has further supported the upward price momentum.
Pork
Expana’s 23–27 lbs bone-in hams (EBP) were reported at $0.8140/lb for the week of March 16, 2026, down 1.7% MOM from the comparable February week and 3.2% lower YOY from this same week last year.
However, current price levels should be viewed within a broader context. Values reached a peak in August 2025 at $1.119/lb, placing recent levels approximately 27% below that high. Throughout 2025, prices strengthened into the summer months before trending lower into the fall, reaching a local seasonal low in November, followed by a modest recovery in December and softer movement into early 2026.
Seasonally, ham procurement typically builds several weeks ahead of Easter and Christmas, with a portion of holiday needs often secured prior to March. As a result, current price levels reflect a more moderate demand environment compared to earlier procurement periods, alongside improved supply conditions. Export demand from Mexico remained moderate, while domestic interest ahead of Easter had begun to ease as procurement needs were largely met.
Salmon
From a historical standpoint, Lent continues to represent a pivotal period for the farmed salmon complex. Ash Wednesday and Holy Week typically drive heightened demand, and the market has witnessed increased sales activity for farmed salmon at both foodservice and, particularly, at the retail level, where salmon thrives. Large swings in retail features have been observed week to week, with one of the highest totals of features recorded occurring within the last few weeks.
The recent tariff relief for Norwegian product, with rates declining from 15% to 10%, has provided some market equilibrium as Chilean fillets maintain their 10% tariff rate. However, ongoing concerns about potential increases to 15% for Chilean product continue to create uncertainty among market participants navigating an already complex pricing environment.
Chilean fresh fillets, which represent the majority of fillet supply in the US. market, experienced early January weakness before rallying rapidly and stabilizing as Lent commenced. Current 3-4s pricing sits below both historical benchmarks, trailing the three-year average by 1.84% and the five-year average by 1.08%.
Conversely, European fillets are trending 4.11% above the three-year average and 8.16% above the five-year average, with those averages brought down by 2025 levels when European fillets were trading at the same level as Chilean and sometimes lower at this point last year.
Throughout Lent, market participants reported significant pricing volatility driven by competing supply dynamics. Canadian whole fish processors offered competitive pricing that created downward pressure on fillet markets. Conversely, biological issues within Chilean production systems constrained supply availability, resulting in substantial pricing spreads depending on individual suppliers' inventory positions. This divergence created an unsettled marketplace where transactions occurred significantly above and below quoted levels.
As stakeholders work through the remainder of the Lent cycle amid these supply considerations and tariff factors, the marketplace remains active. The interplay between various supply situations and competitive processing availability from different origins has maintained a mixed undertone, with market participants monitoring both biological developments and potential policy changes.
Cod
Over the past three months, cod has maintained a persistent full steady undertone characterized by sustained upward pricing pressure. Raw-material shortages have emerged as the primary market driver, with tight overseas supply paired with steady domestic demand creating an environment where downward price relief has remained elusive.
Atlantic cod has been the most notably constrained segment, with supply described as exceptionally tight throughout the period. Persistent supply constraints and elevated input costs have limited downward price potential across all major groundfish categories as well, supporting full steady pricing for not only cod, but also haddock, pollock and flounder. Market participants have adopted in some cases a more disciplined, conservative purchasing strategies in response to the constrained supply environment, carefully timing procurement against rising replacement costs while managing inventory positions cautiously.
Tariff policy uncertainty has been a secondary but significant factor in shaping market dynamics. A 10% tariff has been in effect under Section 122 authority for up to 150 days, with White House officials indicating potential escalation to 15%. This policy volatility has affected market participant procurement decisions and landed-cost assessments. The interplay between raw-material cost pressures and tariff uncertainty has kept market participants in a holding pattern, neither aggressively buying nor significantly reducing inventory positions.
The combination of material scarcity and policy flux has created a market environment where full steady pricing appears structurally supported rather than driven by transactional momentum. The underlying tone has remained decidedly upward, with market participants continuing to face limited options and constrained sourcing choices.
Eggs
The contrast between last year’s Easter egg market and current conditions could hardly be more pronounced. In 2025, the industry was in the throes of an unprecedented supply shock, with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) decimating production and propelling Midwest large prices to a record $8.58/dozen in the weeks leading up to the holiday. This year, prices are sitting at just $2.01/dozen with Easter two weeks away—a decline of more than 75% year-over-year—underscoring a dramatically more balanced, albeit still fragile, marketplace.
While avian influenza has persisted in 2026, its impact has been far less severe than the historic wave seen the year prior. Importantly, the market has also been shaped by a very different demand profile. Last year’s extreme price rally triggered widespread, fear-driven stockpiling that intensified already constrained supply conditions. In contrast, this year’s environment has been defined by fully stocked shelves and a more measured consumer response. Despite eggs remaining one of the most affordable protein options at retail, demand has ranged from average to, at times, slightly below expectations.
That said, the market is not without underlying tightness. Production levels remain meaningfully below historical norms, and the seasonal lift associated with Easter has provided recent support.
After falling to an intra-low of $0.79/dozen in late February, Midwest Large prices surged 154% to $2.01/dozen by the third week of March.
However, with the holiday rapidly approaching, upward momentum is already beginning to fade. Many retailers took a proactive approach this year, securing inventory well in advance as a hedge against potential HPAI-related disruptions. As a result, a portion of typical Easter demand has effectively been pulled forward, leaving current buying interest more subdued. In recent days, negotiated spot market activity has reflected this shift, with transactions occurring at notable discounts to published levels—signaling that a pre-Easter correction may already be underway.
Taken together, this year’s Easter market reflects a recalibrated equilibrium. While supply remains constrained relative to historical benchmarks, the absence of panic-driven demand has allowed the market to function more fluidly, resulting in significantly lower price levels than those seen a year ago.
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