Price analysis by commodity
Cocoa Bean Terminal Prices
With the average spot ICE New York cocoa futures price reaching $11,160/metric ton (mt) ($5.06/lb) in January 2025, the price leapt by a staggering 150.2% YOY and made cocoa prices the highest-performing agricultural commodity of 2024. However, by January 2026 the price had fallen by 53.9% YOY to $5,148/mt. This fall resulted in downward pressure on cocoa butter and liquor prices, which declined throughout 2025. In contrast, cocoa powder ratios firmed, supported by an increasing use of powder in chocolate substitute formulations, which allowed manufacturers to stretch beans and reduce costs, keeping powder relatively more valuable in the market.
The Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for Cocoa Butter Spot EXW Europe set a record in December 2024 of €40,268/mt ($21.74/lb) but in 2025 the maximum value was 27.7% lower at €31,540/mt ($17.02/lb) on 20 January 2025, following a low of €8,281/mt ($4.47/lb) on 24 November 2025.
Cocoa prices in the US were markedly lower in 2025 than in 2024 as improved weather across West Africa, particularly in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, supported stronger crop prospects and eased the supply tightness that drove prices to record levels the previous year. Softer global grindings as manufacturers adjusted to earlier price shocks added sustained downward pressure. ICE New York cocoa began January 2025 around $11,000/mt, well below 2024 highs but still elevated during the key Valentine’s manufacturing window in late Q4 and early January.
Prices declined steadily, falling below $8,500/mt by late February and under $8,000/mt by mid-March, before rebounding to a 2025 high of $10,974/mt on 19 May 2025 as buyers reassessed coverage. The second half of the year saw persistent weakness amid ample availability and subdued demand, with ICE NY cocoa reaching a 2025 low of around $4,950/mt in late November.
As in Europe, most Valentine’s Day chocolate had already been priced earlier at higher levels, limiting the immediate benefit of lower prices.
Sugar Prices
In the US, the spot and contract prices of beet and cane sugar are lower than year-ago levels. The EBP for beet sugar spot Midwest US was last assessed at $0.44/lb, a 2% decline YOY. Cane sugar spot Southeast prices also decreased over the same period, assessed at $0.47/lb at the end of January, reflecting a 9% decrease YOY. Contract prices for beet and cane sugar declined by 12% and 5% over the same period, respectively.
Market participants note that the soft tone can be attributed to shifting dietary habits and excess supply in the market. Deliveries were slow throughout 2025, and the sentiment is continuing in 2026 as more US consumers begin taking GLP-1 drugs. Industry players are closely monitoring the trend, which has hampered demand and reduced domestic consumption in the past year. Also, the government released new dietary guidelines, pushing Americans to prioritize protein and cut back on added sugar along with processed foods.
According to the USDA, total US sugar imports are projected to hit their lowest levels since 2007/08, after decreasing steadily in the past five years. The reduction is being driven by a variety of factors, including lower import quotas from Mexico, declining sugar consumption, and higher domestic consumption.
Sources tell Expana that movement for Valentine’s Day in 2026 met expectations but was lighter compared to the previous two years. Preparations by candy companies are completed by January, but typically, there is some last-minute spot buying. Market participants state that the industry has not seen those pulls this season.
Nonfat Dried Milk
The EBP of US Nonfat Dried Milk decreased by 13% YOY in January 2026 to $1.19/lb.
Nonfat dried milk (NFDM) prices have remained under sustained pressure throughout the second half of 2025, constrained by elevated milk production that has kept powder manufacturing running at robust levels. However, as the calendar has turned to 2026, prices have started to rebound from their lows as stock levels begin to tighten across the East Coast and Central regions of the country. The shift in market tone reflects a transition from sustained oversupply to emerging scarcity in key geographic markets. After months of downward pressure, NDM is finally showing signs of price stabilization and potential recovery, though current levels remain below year-ago comparisons.
Vanilla Prices
The EBP of Madagascan vanilla, which is typically used as flavoring in chocolate, fell by 26% in the twelve months through November 2025, to $51/kg (gourmet vanilla, fob Madagascar).
Madagascar's new export campaign reopened during November 2025 following delays caused by a military coup. In mid-October, former president Andry Rajoelina fled the country during the military coup and Michael Randrianirina was sworn in as new president.
The new government has dissolved the Conseil National de la Vanille (CNV) and removed the vanilla export tax of $4/kg.
The market continues to be pressured by oversupply and heavy stocks in destination markets, with prices for the gourmet grade hitting their lowest levels since April 2013.
Strawberry Prices
EBP for US strawberries increased by 20.8% YOY and stable MOM to $1.28/lb in January 2026. Strawberry markets continue to trend firm, with market participants pointing to strong demand as the primary driver. Organic supplies are not as constrained as they were last year, but there is still strong demand in that marketspace as well. Overall market conditions remain supported, but supply dynamics vary notably by origin.
Mexico is reported to be short on volume according to market participants, while Peru’s crop is progressing normally and providing some balance to the market. Chilean supply is generally good but slightly behind expectations, with strawberries described as somewhat tight at this stage of the season, though market participants emphasize that there is still a long runway ahead. Egypt’s new crop is developing on schedule, adding additional supply options, while Argentina is supplying organic medium strawberries at higher price points.
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