Soaring cocoa prices boost US Valentine’s Day Chocolate Index

As Valentine’s Day traditionally provides a boost for restaurants and confectionary retailers, Expana has analyzed the key commodities associated with the event. Expana’s US Valentine's Day Chocolate Index consists of cocoa beans, sugar and skimmed milk powder (SMP). In addition, consumption of strawberries increases during the Valentine’s Day period, and vanilla is widely used in preparation of cakes and chocolates. As a result, Expana has included the prices of these commodities separately in this report. Expana’s US Valentine's Day Chocolate Index increased by 98.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 2.8% month-on-month (m-o-m) in January 2025, driven by a substantial increase in cocoa prices, which outweighed lower prices for sugar.

Expana’s US Valentine’s Meal Index consists of beef loin, lobster tail and potatoes. The index fell by 9.7% m-o-m and 4.5% y-o-y, driven by lower beef tenderloin prices.

Cocoa prices have been driven up by challenging weather and disease in key growing areas driving lower production in the 2023/24 crop, as well as an increase in consumer demand, whereas sugar prices were down on the back of ample supply and over-commitment by suppliers. Meanwhile, lobster tail prices are high, as US production slumped to its lowest level in a decade.