Lobster Tail
The North American lobster market has displayed a mix of dynamics over the past year, with certain trends shaping supply, demand and pricing patterns. The market price for 5-6 oz North American lobster tails in the US is currently aligned with year-ago levels. At the beginning of this year, the average price was $25.00/lb, slightly higher than last year’s $24.50/lb. Over the past five years, prices have ranged from $17.50/lb to $28.00/lb, with an average of $23.60/lb. This historical range highlights the inherent volatility of the lobster market.
Live lobster production in the US, predominantly from Maine, has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade. However, imports of lobster products from Canada, a critical supply component, have increased compared to last year, compensating for the decline. When final import figures are released in February, the expectation is that it will show a slight increase in the overall supply of lobster tails in the US market. Supply stability over the past three years indicates consistent demand for this segment.
Inventories, meanwhile, paint a slightly different picture; anecdotal evidence suggests that the market for North American lobster tails has been constrained by limited supply. This restricted supply environment contributed to firm pricing patterns toward the end of 2024, reflecting a balance between steady to better demand and limited availability.
A critical interplay between US production and Canadian imports must be closely monitored to understand the North American lobster market. While live lobster availability continues to decline, the stability in the tail supply, supported by Canadian imports, has helped maintain market equilibrium. The pricing trends suggest a resilient demand, with fluctuations largely tied to supply constraints and international trade dynamics.
Beef Loin
Tenderloins prices have largely tracked below year-ago levels. Prices have largely tracked below year-ago levels, as buyers at the wholesale level have kept this item at “arm’s length”. This has been driven by uncertainties over consumers' willingness to spend on the pricier cut of beef. On average, prices lagged 2023 levels by nearly 5%.
Currently, however, Urner Barry by Expana’s Choice tenderloin prices are sitting well below year-ago levels by nearly $1.48/lb or 10%. Since entering 2025, Urner Barry’s Choice tenderloin quote has fallen by 12% to $12.76/lb, which is right in line with the five-year average but well below the three-year average of $14.55/lb. This is welcomed by the foodservice sector, as filet mignons remain a staple as a center plate protein for Valentine’s Day, especially as many sources indicate that consumer confidence is rising in a meaningful way following the US election in November.
Potatoes
The price for US Potatoes increased by 5% y-o-y, to $0.50/lb, in January 2025. As of January 2025, the US russet potato market is experiencing stable pricing and supply dynamics. The USDA's Crop Production 2024 Summary, released on January 10, 2025, indicates that total US potato production for 2024 was 420.24 million cwt, reflecting a 4.5% decrease from the previous year. This decline is attributed to reductions in both harvested areas and yield in several key potato-producing states.
Weather conditions have also played a significant role in crop development, with reports that temperatures averaged at least 10°F below normal ranges in a broad area stretching from the central and southern Plains into the mid-South. These colder-than-average temperatures could potentially impact potato storage and transportation. Despite these challenges, the market has remained relatively stable.
